San Diego State vs. UConn Final Score Prediction for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
By Peter Dewey
The defending champion UConn Huskies are favored by 11 points in the Sweet 16 against the San Diego State Aztecs, a rematch of last season’s National Championship Game.
UConn has rolled through the first two rounds of the tournament, winning by double digits against No. 16 seed Stetson and No. 9 seed Northwestern.
Meanwhile, the Aztecs survived a scare against No. 12 UAB before knocking off No. 13 Yale, who upset the No. 4 Auburn Tigers in the first round. The Aztecs are one of the better defensive teams in the country, ranking eighth in KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency, but can the team slow down – and potentially upset – the No. 1 overall seed?
Here at BetSided, we’ve already covered bettors with a betting preview for this game, but why not take a stab at predicting the final score?
While this is an extremely tough bet to hit, we can use the latest odds to generally predict where oddsmakers think this game will go. Let’s dive in:
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San Diego State vs. UConn Odds, Spread and Total
San Diego State vs. UConn Expert Prediction
BetSided’s college basketball expert Reed Wallach shared his prediction for this game earlier in the week, taking the UNDER in the rematch of last season’s National Championship Game:
UConn’s defense won’t pressure the ball, but its length is stifling for opponents, third in effective field goal percentage allowed on the 46th lowest 3-point rate in the nation.
Meanwhile, the Aztecs offense ranks outside the top 200 in effective field goal percentage, anchored down by a 31% 3-point percentage.
The Aztecs' best offense is through [Jaedon] LeDee in the post, but [Donovan] Clingan has the size to slow him down. I’d say the best outcome for SDSU is that Clingan gets into foul trouble, forcing the team to downsize a bit.
Overall, though, this sets up to be an under matchup with SDSU’s fine game planning slowing this game down, but the offense not doing enough to pull off the titanic upset.
San Diego State vs. UConn Final Score Prediction
Based on the total for this game (135.5) and the spread (UConn -11), oddsmakers are expecting a result in the range of UConn winning with a low-to-mid 70s score.
For example, a 73-62 UConn win would fall right on the spread (11 points) and just below the total of 135.5.
However, I think the Huskies may be able to cover and open up this margin, especially given their recent success in the tournament.
Dating back to last season’s NCAA Tournament, UConn has won every game by at least 13 points, with the closest matchup coming in the Final Four against the Miami Hurricanes last season. The Huskies took down Northwestern by 17 points in the second round of this year’s tournament, and I think 11 points may be too few for the No. 1 team in the country.
San Diego State is a good defensive team, but the team lacks the offensive talent (53rd in adjusted offensive efficiency in KenPom) to compete with the No. 2 offense in the country. The Huskies easily handled this San Diego State program in the national title game last season, winning 76-59.
UConn has not allowed more than 60 points in an NCAA Tournament game since last season’s Sweet 16 against Arkansas, and it’s only allowed 60 or more points twice in its last eight tournament games (63 to Iona last season in the first round and 65 points to the Razorbacks in the Sweet 16).
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Dan Hurley’s group hold the Aztecs to less than 60 points while covering the spread, but I agree with Wallach’s prediction and that San Diego State can keep this game low-scoring.
Based on the total, I’ll keep this one UNDER 135.5 points as well.
Final score prediction: UConn 72, San Diego State 58
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.