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San Francisco vs. Cincinnati Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NIT First Round (Back the Dons)

By Marty Coleman

Jan 25, 2024; Spokane, Washington, USA; San Francisco Dons forward Jonathan Mogbo (10) rebounds the
Jan 25, 2024; Spokane, Washington, USA; San Francisco Dons forward Jonathan Mogbo (10) rebounds the / James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
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While regional and intra-state matchups tend to dominate the first round of the NIT, sometimes that's not possible and we get an intriguing matchup like the University of San Francisco traveling to Ohio to take on Cincinnati, which at roughly 2.367 miles is slightly farther than the 86 or so miles Appalachian State is traveling to take on Wake Forest.

Cincinnati finished 20-14, but 11th in the Big 12 going 7-11 in the conference, while the Dons finished 23-10 and 11-5 in the West Coast Conference.

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San Francisco vs. Cincinnati odds, spread, and total

San Francisco vs. Cincinnati Betting Trends

  • San Francisco is 18-14 ATS this season
  • Cincinnati is16-17 -1 ATS this season
  • San Francisco is 4-4 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Cincinnati is 9-14 ATS as a favorite this season
  • The OVER is 17-15 in San Francisco games this season
  • The OVER is 17-17 in Cincinnati games this season

San Francisco vs. Cincinnati How to Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, March 20
  • Game Time: 8:00 EST
  • Venue: Fifth Third Arena 
  • How To Watch (TV): ESPN+
  • San Francisco record: 23-10
  • Cincinnati record: 20-14

San Francisco vs. Cincinnati Key Players to Watch

San Francisco

Jonathan Mogbo: The Dons feature three double-digit scorers led by 6'8 junior forward Jonathan Mogbo, who comes in averaging a double-double at 14.4 points and 10.2 rebounds per game.

Mogbo's scoring has been somewhat muted recently with him averaging just 9.7 points over his last three games, but he has dominated on the boards with 31 rebounds in those contests.

Cincinnati

Dan Skillings, Jr.: The 6'6 sophomore guard leads the Bearcats in scoring (12.6 points per game) while pulling down 6.3 rebounds per contest, which is good enough for second on the team.

Skillings, Jr. has scored at least 13 points in five straight games, including 25 in a 72-52 thrashing of Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament, in which he averaged 17.7 points over three contests.

San Francisco vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Pick

Two solid defenses go to battle in this one, but the Bearcats have played the much tougher schedule in the Big 12.

Cincinnati's resume is littered with close losses, otherwise they could have found themselves dancing in the big tournament and one could speculate whether that will be on their mind in this one.

While the Dons' overall strength of schedule is weaker, that doesn't mean they haven't been tested. They've played Boise State, Grand Canyon, Arizona State, Utah State along with St. Mary's and Gonzaga twice each.

While I expect the Bearcats to dominate on the offensive boards, they turn the ball over some and aren't particularly good at the free throw line, traits that spell doom when trying to cover 6.5 points.

While Cincinnati's home-court advantage and the Dons long road trip may help the Bearcats live to see the second round, I like San Francisco to cover the spread in this one.

Pick: San Francisco +6.5

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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