The early portion of the PGA Tour season continues with this week's Shriners Children's Open at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas.
We didn't hit either of our outright picks last week, but we did cash Seonghyeon Kim to finish in the Top 20 at +600, so overall, it was a profitable event for us!
A couple of bigger names will return to action this week, with Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, and Max Homa set to tee it up. Let's take a look at the top 10 odds to win this week, and then I'll give you my three best bets.
Shriners Children's Open Odds
- Patrick Cantlay +650
- Sungjae Im +1000
- Max Homa +1800
- Aaron Wise +2000
- Joohyung Kim +2200
- Taylor Montgomery +3100
- Emiliano Grillo +3700
- Cameron Davis +4200
- Alex Noren +4200
- Tom Hoge +4200
Shriners Children's Open Best Bets
Patrick Cantlay Top 10 (-105)
Sure, you can bet on Cantlay to win at +650, but instead of taking a short price on someone to win and hope that everything breaks their way, I'm going to take him to finish in the top 10 in what might be one of my favorites -105 bets of all time.
Not only is Cantlay by far the best golfer in the field this week, but there's no course he performs at better than TPC Summerlin. His first PGA Tour win occurred here in 2017, and since then he's finished second in both 2018 and 2019, and then he finishes eighth here in 2020. This is a two unit play for me.
Taylor Montgomery (+3100)
My outright pick for this week is Taylor Montgomery. TPC Summerlin is one of the easier golf courses on Tour. It plays extremely short, and the greens aren't much of a challenge to put on. It largely comes down to short approaches and putting, and that's where Montgomery excels.
Montgomery ranks 5th in scoring average, 2nd in strokes gained: putting, and 21st in approaches between 50-125 yards. I'll back the rookie to get his first win on Tour.
Aaron Rai Top 20 (+410)
If this is going to be a birdie fest, Aaron Rai should have chance to be in contention. He ranks T3 in birdie average through the first two events of the season, averaging 5.25 per round. He also ranks T13 is approach proximity from 50-125 yards, so all of the short approach shots at TPC Summerlin should fit his strengths well.
He has enough holes in his game, mainly his play around the greens, for me to stay away from getting aggressive with him. But, his short approaches and his putting is enough for me to bet on him at +410 to finish in the top 20.