SMU vs. Boston College Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for Fenway Bowl
By Reed Wallach
SMU rallied behind a backup quarterback to win the AAC Championship at Tulane, and now look to cap the season off with a bowl win against Boston College in the Fenway Bowl.
One of the biggest favorites in all of the 2023 bowl season, SMU is expected to beat Boston College in the Fenway Bowl after the Eagles rallied from a slow start to qualify for a bowl game. Jennings performed well backing up Stone and securing the AAC title, will he keep it up against a vulnerable Boston College defense?
Oddsmakers are counting on the Mustangs to roll, but is it a valuable bet? Let's discuss in my full betting preview of the 2023 Fenway Bowl.
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SMU vs. Boston College Odds, Spread and Total
Boston College vs. SMU Betting Trends
- Boston College is 4-8 against the spread (ATS) this season
- SMU is 8-5 ATS this season
- Boston College went OVER in nine of 12 games this season
- Boston College didn't cover its last three games
- SMU covered three of its last four games
- Rhett Lashlee is 0-1 ATS in bowl games
SMU vs. Boston College How to Watch
- Date: Thursday, December 28th
- Game Time: 11:00 AM EST
- Venue: Fenway Park
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN
- SMU Record: 11-2
- Boston College Record: 6-6
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SMU vs. Boston College Players to Watch
SMU
Kevin Jennings: Jennings stepped in for the injured Stone and did what was necessary to get a conference title win. He completed 19-of-33 passes for 203 yards while also adding 73 yards on the ground with two interceptions against an elite defense on the road.
Boston College
Thomas Castellanos: Castellanos has been incredibly dynamic, sparking the BC bowl run, engineer of the seventh-best run offense in terms of EPA/Rush. Castellanos is a raw passer, but is a threat as a rusher, compiling over 1,000 yards on the ground. However, he is incredibly turnover-prone, totaling 17 turnovers this season.
SMU vs. Boston College Prediction and Pick
Boston College became one of the most exciting teams in the ACC with its dynamic quarterback making plays all over the field -- some good and some bad -- but the team is likely running into a buzzsaw in SMU, who bolsters the eighth-best net yards per play.
With Jennings under center, the Mustangs offense may not have the high upside passing game that was 13th in EPA/Pass, but he proved he can navigate the offense with his legs. Now, he faces a Boston College defense that is 118th in EPA/Play and has no semblance of a pass rush, the fewest tackles for loss of any defense in the country (38).
Meanwhile, SMU's defense can keep a lid on BC's normally explosive offense, but one that struggled down the stretch. The Eagles didn't score more than 22 points in its final five games and lost its last three by an average margin of nearly 20 points. Sure, the team is close to home, but I like SMU to win in a convincing fashion.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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