Sony Open Picks (K.H. Lee is Flying Under the Radar at Waialae Country Club)
What a way to start the year!
On the bright side, we cashed in the first outright winner of 2023 with Jon Rahm coming through for us at +650. The down side is I can't complain about a bad beat for the rest of the year.
Collin Morikawa had an all time collapse on Sunday, blowing a 7-stroke lead to Jon Rahm, who shot 10-under on the day to get us the victory. It feels good to be on the right side of a Sunday collapse for once.
Not only that, but we cashed in Tom Kim to finish in the top 10 at +140. Cameron Young top 10 was our only loser, but he was close, finishg one stroke outside the money for us.
The PGA Tour stays in Hawaii for this week's Sony Open. We cashed Hideki Matsuyama at this event last year, so let's aim for another winner.
We'll dive into the top 20 odds to win and then I'll give you my three best bets.
Odds to Win the Sony Open
All odds listed below are via BetMGM Sportsbook.
- Tom Kim +1100
- Sungjae Im +1200
- Jordan Spieth +1600
- Brian Harman +1800
- Hideki Matsuyama +2000
- Corey Conners +2200
- Russell Henley +2200
- Tom Hoge +2500
- Billy Horschel +3300
- KH Lee +3300
- Keegan Bradley +3300
- Keith Mitchell +3300
- Cam Davis +3500
- Taylor Montgomery +3500
- Adam Scott +4000
- JJ Spaun +4000
- Maverick McNealy +4000
- Harris English +4500
- Emiliano Grillo +5000
- Christiaan Bezhuidenhout +5000
Sony Open Best Bets
K.H. Lee +4000
My outright pick for this week is not one of the two South Korean golfers who top the odds list. Instead, I'm going with the third one on the odds board, K.H. Lee.
People seem to be quick to forget how well he has been playing early this PGA Tour season. He already has three top 10 finishes, including a third place finish at the CJ Cup and a T7 finish at last week's Tournament of Champions.
He enters the event ranking 10th in total strokes gained, but what's most important is his approach game from 150-200 yards out, which is the key distance at Waialae Country Club. He ranks ninth in Tour from 150-175 yards out and sixth from 175-200 yards out.
A 19th place finish here in 2019 also gives me confidence that he knows how to play this course. I think he's the best value bet on the board at 40/1. As of writing this article, he's available at that price at PointsBet Sportsbook. If you use this link to sign up, you'll earn a fantastic bonus that you can use to bet on the Sony Open.
Tom Hoge Top 10 +225
It is none other than Tom Hoge who leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach heading into this week's event. He's been on fire with his irons, and if he can keep that up, there's no reason he can't have another top 10 finish.
He won the QBE Shootout, an unofficial event alongside Sahith Theegala in December, finished T3 last week at the Tournament of Champions, and had four-straight T13 or better finishes to start the 2022-2023 season.
It's also worth nothing that he finished third at this event back in 2018 and 12th in 2020, so he does have past success at this track. I love his price point to finish in the top 10 this week.
Taylor Montgomery Top 10 +300
Taylor Montgomery was one of the hottest golfers on Tour during the fall swing. In only seven events played, he has three top 10 finishes and six top 25 finishes, along with zero missed cuts.
He didn't play at last week's Tournament of Champions since he's a PGA Tour rookie, but if he can even come close to his level of play he had in the fall, he has a solid chance to compete this week. He enters the event ranking 14th in total strokes gained and 11th in strokes gained: putting.
Let's hope that putter stays hot and he can cash us a top 10 finish.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.