Betsided

Spurs vs. Nets Prediction and Odds (Fade Late Over/Under Line Movement)

By Ben Heisler

Brooklyn Nets guard James Harden needs a bounce-back performance after getting blown out by Milwaukee Friday night.
Brooklyn Nets guard James Harden needs a bounce-back performance after getting blown out by Milwaukee Friday night. / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
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The Brooklyn Nets welcome the San Antonio Spurs to the Barclays Center for an early Sunday tip-off at noon ET, as Brooklyn looks to rebound from a disappointing 109-121 home blowout at the hands of the Milwaukee Bucks Friday night.

Meanwhile, the Spurs have their best player back, Dejounte Murray, from the league's health and safety protocols, but six others remain out, including three starters.

Are the Nets too heavily favored by the oddsmakers despite the Spurs' MASH unit coming in?

Here are the latest odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook:

Spurs vs. Nets Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Spurs +10 (-110)
  • Nets -10 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Spurs +425
  • Nets -575

Total:

  • 229 (Over -110/Under -110)

Spurs vs. Nets Prediction and Pick

Since opening at Nets -9, we've already seen some movement for today's early afternoon tip-off with the line now up to double digits at -10.

However, we've also seen a massive move on the OVER as well, going from 225 to 229.

This feels a bit too over-reactive to me, considering I was on the UNDER before the line move.

While both teams play at a top-10 pace (Spurs rank 5th, Nets rank 8th), I don't think we're considering the Spurs lack of offensive production missing from their lineup today due to health & safety protocols. San Antonio has six players out; including three starters: Derrick White, Keldon Johnson and Doug McDermott. They also have three rotation guys not playing either: Thad Young, Devin Vassell and Tre Jones.

San Antonio's struggling to score, averaging just over 100 points in its last three games. With Brooklyn near full-strength (minus Kyrie Irving in a home game, of course), I expect this afternoon to not be particularly competitive. Durant and Harden will get some meaningful rest late in the 4th quarter, giving the Spurs a potential path to back door on the spread.

Plus, if you remember our NBA Christmas Day trends story, you'll know that early afternoon games LOVE to go under.

Maybe I'm talking myself into it since I'm backing with the books as opposed to the sharp side, but I'm going UNDER on the updated total

PICK: Spurs-Nets UNDER 229

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