It's been a long NFL season. Some times you don't want to do the math that's required when you're trying to figure out if the team you bet on is covering a point spread or if the total is on pace to go over or under.
Sometimes you just want to watch a team win a game and not worry about any point spreads or totals. If you're in that mood, you've come to the right place. If you want my personal best bet for every single Week 14 game, including spreads and totals, head over to this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets".
Best Moneyline Picks for NFL Week 14
- Buccaneers +116 vs. Falcons
- Texans -180 vs. Jets
- Bills -102 vs. Chiefs
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Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction
It would be just like the Falcons to string together two wins, be firmly atop the division, and then lose at home to a 5-7 Buccaneers team. Atlanta suffered some rough injuries last week against the Jets, with the likes of Kaleb McGary, Nate Landman, and A.J. Terrell listed as questionable. If Terrell can't go, I have major concerns about what the Bucs' receiving core may be able to do against the Falcons' secondary.
The Falcons have made it clear that they're now a run-first team, running the ball on 60.73% of plays over their last three games, the highest mark in the league by over 7%. Now, they need to face a Bucs' defense that ranks 10th in opponent yards per carry (3.9) and fourth in opponent EPA per rush. If the Falcons have to turn to Desmond Ridder's arm to win the game, they could be in trouble.
I'll tale Tampa Bay as my upset pick of the week.
Texans vs. Jets prediction
I have to question your sanity if you're betting on the Jets this week.
You know things are bad when Zach Wilson gets benched for Tim Boyle, who then gets benched for Trevor Siemian, who then gets benched for Zach Wilson. They're dead last in the league in both EPA/Play and Success Rate, and it's not even close. No quarterback, no offensive line, and a receiving core that leaves a lot to be desired.
Meanwhile, the Texans have the rookie of the year at quarterback and a defense that should be able to get enough done to hold this terrible Jets' offense in check.
It'll likely be another low-scoring affair, but I want no part in betting on the Jets. The Texans should win this game.
Bills vs. Chiefs prediction
I may just continue to lose bets on the Bills in the most heartbreaking fashion on a weekly basis, but I just can't ignore the stats and the metrics show us the Bills are an elite team, despite their completely average record.
The Bills are fifth in Net Yards per Play (+0.6) and fourth in EPA per Play, outranking the Chiefs in both areas. The Chiefs' defense has been better than the Bills' defense this season, but they can be had on the ground. They rank 31st in opponent rush EPA and 28th in opponent yards per carry.
Buffalo has ran the ball well this season, averaging 4.4 yards per carry, good for seventh in the NFL, and with Josh Allen coming off a week of rest we may see him take off with his legs more often than he has in recent weeks.
I'll take the Bills to win.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!