History Says Bet On the Chiefs or Rams to Win the Super Bowl
By Joe Summers
Last week, I wrote that the Packers were a bad bet to win the Super Bowl. That prediction proved prescient rather quickly. I relied on a few historical indicators that help us predict Super Bowl Champions. Those trends still hold true going into the AFC and NFC Championship games this weekend. Now, history tells us that either the Chiefs or Rams will hoist the Lombardi Trophy on February 13th.
WynnBET Sportsbook currently has the Chiefs as Super Bowl favorites at +130. The Rams have the second-best odds at +210. The 49ers and Bengals are the underdogs at +450 and +750, respectively.
As a recap, the three trends that predict a Super Bowl winner are as follows: a team must amass at least 23 takeaways during the regular season, a team must have a top-10 scoring offense, and a team must have a top-10 scoring defense.
1. Takeaways
Our first historical trend indicates that a team must have 23 or more takeaways in the regular season to win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs had 29 and the Rams 25. The Bengals only mustered 21 and the 49ers 20. Right off the bat, the Bengals and 49ers fail our historical test.
What about the offense?
2. Scoring Offense
Second, a team must have a top-10 scoring offense during the regular season. The Chiefs (28.2 points per game), Rams (27.1) and Bengals (27.1) all meet this threshold.
The 49ers were not far behind, ranking 13th in the league with 25.1 points per game. Close won't cut it when we're dealing with historical facts, though, and going 0/2 in our historical indicators is a bad sign for San Francisco.
Ok, turnovers and offense. What about defense?
3. Scoring Defense
Finally, a Super Bowl Champion must have a top-10 scoring defense. The 49ers (21.2 points per game, Rams (21.3), and Chiefs (21.4) met this criteria. Cincinnati ranked 17th with 22.1 points per game allowed, so they fail our historical standard here as well.
With the 49ers and Bengals only meeting one out of our three historical thresholds, I feel comfortable writing them off. Perhaps they'll make a mockery of history, but I will not be betting on them to do so.
Instead, look to the Chiefs (+130) and Rams (+210) when placing your Super Bowl wagers. Placing a bet on both of them would lock in a profit if these trends prove correct, but if you love either of these teams you should hop on before it's too late.
Head on over to WynnBET and place your bets now. Don't laugh in the face of history - it tends to repeat itself.