TCU vs. Iowa State Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 6

Our betting expert is eyeing the total in this Big 12 matchup.

Sep 30, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Chandler Morris (4) rolls out to
Sep 30, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Chandler Morris (4) rolls out to / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

TCU lost its second game of the year against West Virginia, but will look to stay in Big 12 title contention against Iowa State, who is fresh off a blowout loss to Oklahoma on the road.

Two teams looking to find their footing in Big 12 play do battle under the lights in Ames, Iowa as Rocco Becht looks to keep this Iowa State offense trending in the right direction against an explosive TCU offense.

Can we be in store for a ton of points in this one? Let me explain why I believe the OVER has betting value:

TCU vs. Iowa State Odds, Spread and Total

Iowa State vs. TCU Betting Trends

  • Both teams are 2-3 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Iowa State is 0-2 ATS as an underdog this season
  • TCU has gone UNDER in four of five games this season
  • After starting the season with three straight UNDERS, Iowa State has gone OVER in its last two games

TCU vs. Iowa State How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, October 7
  • Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Jack Tice Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): Fox Sports 2
  • TCU Record: 3-2
  • Iowa State Record: 2-3

Looking for our betting preview on the Red River Showdown? We got you covered here!

TCU vs. Iowa State Key Players to Watch


Chandler Morris: Morris has completed 64% of his passes with a 10-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the dynamic TCU offense. However, Morris needs to limit the dangerous throws, he has 10 turnover worthy plays to seven big time throws, per Pro Football Focus.

Iowa State

Rocco Becht: Iowa State is starting to show some life on offense as Becht is lifting this offense up. The new-look Cyclones offense in Big 12 play has scored 54 points across two games and will face a TCU secondary that is 85th in EPA/Pass this season.

TCU vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

Iowa State is an over team for the foreseeable future, and I believe the team's offense can scheme up some explosive plays against TCU's defense.

This is not the Iowa State defense of old, not able to get a pass rush with its three down linemen, ranking 87th in pass rush grade, per PFF, and ranking 69th in explosive pass defense.

Further, the team has generated only eight sacks this season, good for 94th in the country. TCU has far more athleticism on offense and should generate plenty of scoring opportunities. The Horned Frogs are 30th in points per drive at nearly three points per possession this season.

Meanwhile, Iowa State's offense is starting to turn into an explosive offense, abandoning the run game and letting Becht cook. TCU's defense is boom-or-bust this season, generating 14 sacks, but the unit is in the back half of the country in terms of both explosive pass rate and yards per pass attempt allowed.

Becht has been prone to turnovers, which can help our over at the right time, but he has been fearless under center after being thrown into the fire sooner than expected due to quarterback Hunter Dekker being suspended. Becht has made nine big time throws per PFF to four turnover-worthy plays.

I think Iowa State is an over team until further notice, and TCU will happily oblige.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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