Texans vs. Rams Prediction: Preseason Trend Puts Value on UNDER in Week 2

The defending Super Bowl champs will get their second look at preseason football on Friday when they host the Houston Texans. 

The Los Angeles Rams have covered the spread in five of their last six preseason games, and they scored 29 points in a win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1. 

Quarterback Bryce Perkins was electric, throwing for 133 yards and two scores. Given Sean McVay’s previous coaching seasons, I’d expect to see a ton of Perkins and very little of the Rams' starters in the preseason.

On the Texans side of things, they appear to be treating this more like a real game. Head coach Lovie Smith plans to give quarterback Davis Mills some more run in Week 2. 

Does that make Houston a deserving road favorite? 

Here are the latest odds for this game from WynnBET: 

Texans vs. Rams Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Texans -3 (-110)
• Rams +3 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Texans: -160
• Rams: +130

Total:

• 38.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Texans vs. Rams Odds, Spread and Total Movement in NFL Preseason Week 2

There hasn’t been a ton of movement in this game, but the Texans are short favorites at -3, and the total has risen half a point from 38 to 38.5. 

Texans vs. Rams Best Bet and Prediction 

The Texans grabbed a win in their first preseason game over the New Orleans Saints, taking it 17-13. That kept an interesting trend going, as the UNDER is 5-1 in the team’s last six preseason games. 

Even though the Rams went OVER in Week 1, they have gone UNDER in eight of their last nine preseason games. Sportsbooks adjusted for bettors blindly taking UNDERs in Week 1, and the OVER went 14-3 (including the Hall of Fame Game). 

As good as Perkins has been in preseason, and even with Mills starting, I’m inclined to lean with the UNDER here. 

The Rams probably won’t  play any of their starters on offense, and they only threw the ball 17 times in the opener. With the Texans offense lacking talent even with Mills starting, I’ll ride with the UNDER with the total rising. 

Lean: UNDER 38.5 (-110)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.