Texas A&M vs. Nebraska Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament First Round (Aggies have Edge)

Mar 16, 2024; Nashville, TN, USA; Texas A&M Aggies guard Wade Taylor IV (4) celebrates toward
Mar 16, 2024; Nashville, TN, USA; Texas A&M Aggies guard Wade Taylor IV (4) celebrates toward / Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Texas A&M and Nebraska meet in the No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup in the South Region first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Texas A&M used a late surge in the SEC Tournament to secure a berth in the 2024 NCAA Tournament and will face Nebraska, who put together a very nice analytical profile to make a run in the 'Big Dance.' Who has the edge in this projected coin flip?

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Texas A&M vs. Nebraska Odds, Spread and Total

Nebraska vs. Texas A&M Betting Trends

  • Nebraska is 21-12 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Nebraska is 16-4 ATS as a favorite
  • Texas A&M has gone OVER in 21 of 34 games this season
  • Texas A&M has gone OVER in eight of the last 10 games
  • Nebraska has gone OVER in 22 of 33 games this season

Texas A&M vs. Nebraska How to Watch

  • Date: Friday, March 22nd
  • Game Time: 6:50 PM EST
  • Venue: FedEx Forum
  • How to Watch (TV): TNT
  • Texas A&M Record: 20-14
  • Nebraska Record: 23-10

Texas A&M vs. Nebraska Key Players to Watch

Texas A&M

Wade Taylor IV: A 6'0" junior guard has struggled to hit from three this season, as the Aggies have been bottom 20 in effective field goal percentage for much of this season, but we have seen him rise to the occasion with his defense and ability to get to the free throw line. Taylor is fresh off an SEC Tournament run in which he scored 82 points in three games and made six threes in each of the last two. Can his hot March continue in the NCAA Tournament?


Brice Williams: At 6'7" Williams will try to unpack the Texas A&M defense with his ability to get inside but also stretch the floor. Williams is adept at initiating contact and getting to the charity stripe but is also a 39% three-point shooter. Williams is a strong defender for a rising Nebraska defense that will look to keep down this Aggies offense.

Texas A&M vs. Nebraska Prediction and Pick

This is a brutal draw for the Cornhuskers, who will face a Texas A&M team that is the best offensive-rebounding team in the country. Considering the Aggies are one of the worst shooting teams in the country (345th in effective field goal percentage per KenPom), the team's ability to generate second chances is massive. Further, the team is top 50 in the country in free throw rate as the likes of Taylor and Tyrece Radford are always generating foul calls and making games into half-court battles.

Looking at the Cornhuskers profile, the team is outside the top 200 in defensive rebounding rate after playing in the Big Ten. While the defense ranks third in adjusted defensive efficiency since February 1st according to Bart Torvik, I'm skeptical of this matchup with the Aggies' ability to offset some of the Cornhuskers' strengths.

On the other side of the floor, Nebraska may struggle against the morphing zone defense that Buzz Williams deploys. Texas A&M runs a zone on about 13% of its possessions, holding teams to a 39% field goal percentage in that sample, but could up that given Nebraska's numbers against zone defenses.

Fred Hoiberg's bunch has only seen zone defenses 3% of its possessions (an incredibly small sample), but shot just 32% from the field.

Given the fact that Texas A&M can generate second chances and overwhelm Nebraska on defense with changing defensive schemes, I believe the edge lies with the Aggies to advance in this coin-flip matchup.

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