Texas Tech vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 6
By Reed Wallach
Texas Tech and Baylor are trying to turn around their respective seasons after slow starts, each off of impressive wins last week.
Who can get into the mix in Big 12 play with Texas Tech onto backup Behren Morton and Baylor getting back quarterback Blake Shapen in what could be an incredibly high scoring game.
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Texas Tech vs. Baylor Odds, Spread and Total
Baylor vs. Texas Tech Betting Trends
- Baylor is 1-3-1 against the spread (ATS)
- Texas Tech is 0-2 ATS on the road this season
- Baylor has gone UNDER in two of three games as an underdog
Texas Tech vs. Baylor How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, October 7
- Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
- Venue: McLane Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
- Texas Tech Record: 2-3
- Baylor Record: 2-3
Texas Tech vs. Baylor Key Players to Watch
Texas Tech
Behren Morton: Morton has experience as the backup for the Red Raiders, and helped the offense stay on track against Houston, completing 63% of his passes for only 161 yards. Morton reportedly had a shoulder injury leading up to last week, will he showcase more of his arm talent against a lackluster Baylor secondary?
Baylor
Blake Shapen: Shapen returned from an MCL injury suffered in Week 1 and engineered the biggest comeback win in Baylor history against UCF, rallying from down 28 to win 36-35. Shapen passed for 293 yards with a touchdown as the Bears try to erase a slow start to the year.
Get ready for Week 6 by checking out our picks for every Top 25 matchup on the slate!
Texas Tech vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick
The pace in this game should be frenetic as Texas Tech is second in plays per minute in the nation and Baylor is a willing customer given its top half of the country in that same metric.
Shapen's return to Baylor should lift the offense well above its season long metrics. The team has been fairly unlucky this season, scoring on only 40% of red zone trips this season and plagued by inaccurate passing (mainly not on Shapen).
I believe Baylor is due for an uptick in offensive efficiency against a lackluster Texas Tech defensive line that is bottom half of the nation in sacks and is not driving havoc like it did last year when it was top 20 in the nation in that mark. This season, Texas Tech is bottom 10 in havoc rate, which can lift up this Baylor offense.
Meanwhile, the Baylor defense has fallen off a cliff this season, allowing more than three points per drive and outside the top 100 in explosive run and pass rate. Given Texas Tech's preferred tempo, there should be plenty of gaps in the Bears defense.
Even with questions around Morton's shoulder, Texas Tech is going to have plenty of scoring chances, and I don't trust the defense to hold up either. I'll count on points in this one and take the over.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!