The American Express Picks (Scottie Scheffler Aims for First Win of New Season)

January 8, 2023; Maui, Hawaii, USA; Scottie Scheffler hits his tee shot on the second hole during
January 8, 2023; Maui, Hawaii, USA; Scottie Scheffler hits his tee shot on the second hole during / Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Gamblor giveth, Gamblor taketh away.

After an extremely successful first event of the 2023 calendar year, Taylor Montgomery fell one stroke short of cashing a +300 Top 10 ticket which would've made us profitable for the week. Instead, I went 0-3 for -3 units.

That's golf betting for ya. I now sit at 2-4 for +3.9 units two events into 2023.

I'll look to bounce back this week at The American Express, which takes place at three different courses in Palm Springs, California.

Let's take a look at the top 20 odds to win, and then I'll give you my best bets.

Odds to Win The American Express

All odds listed below are via BetMGM Sportsbook.

  • Jon Rahm +600
  • Scottie Scheffler +1000
  • Patrick Cantlay +1100
  • Tony Finau +1400
  • Will Zalatoris +2000
  • Xander Schauffele +2000
  • Cameron Young +2200
  • Sungjae Im +2200
  • Tom Kim +2200
  • Sam Burns +3500
  • Brian Harman +4000
  • Si Woo Kim +4000
  • Tom Hoge +4000
  • Taylor Montgomery +4500
  • Aaron Wise +5000
  • Andrew Putnam +5000
  • Cam Davis +5000
  • Sahith Theegala +5500
  • KH Lee +6000
  • Adam Hadwin +6600

The American Express Best Bets

Scottie Scheffler to Win +1000

Have we all forgot how good Scottie Scheffler is? He was the best golfer on the PGA Tour last year, and he hasn't shown any signs that this season will be any different.

In five starts this season, he has four top 10 finishes including a runner-up at the Hero World Challenge. The only thing that has hurt him at times is his putting, but he seemed to have fixed that over the holidays, as he gained +0.69 strokes with his flat stick at the Tournament of Champions.

With this event taking place at three different courses, it's tough to dial in on a specific style of play. This week, targeting golfers who are solid in every aspect of the game is generally a good strategy. It also helps that Scheffler had a third place finish her in 2020.

Cam Davis Top 10 +350

If there is one course that you want to, it's the Stadium Course at PGA West, as that's the one course that's played twice during this tournament, including on Sunday's final round. The key stat at the Stadium Course is driving distance, so I'm going to bet on one of the longest drivers on Tour, Cam Davis.

He enters the event ranking third in driving distance, and he finished third here last season, which gives me hope that he can replicate that success this weekend. He has yet to crack the top 10, but he has three straight starts of T37 or better, including a T13 finish at the CJ Cup.

I like his value this week to finish in the top 10 at +350.

Luke List Top 10 +750

If you're looking for a bit of a long shot bet for this week, you have to love Luke List at +750.

He finished 22nd and 21st here the past two seasons, and always seems to play his best golf during the winter California swing portion of the calendar. He struggled in the second half of the season last year and didn't look good in the fall swing either.

But, List impressed at the Tournament of Champions just two weeks ago. he finished T11 against stiff competition, gaining strokes in all areas except for putting. He's great off-the-tee, and that will prove to be pivotal at the Stadium Course this week. I think he's worth a shot at +750.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.