The Masters Top Betting Trends: What to Know at Augusta National
Hello, friends. Welcome to Masters week.
Before you place your bets or lock in your pool entries, it's important to take a few minutes to study some important trends that take place as Augusta National year-after-year.
I already wrote about key stats for this week, but this article is going to focus on overall trends that you should be aware of. Let's dive into them.
Betting Trends for the 2022 Masters
World No. 1 Golfers Have Struggled to Win in Recent History
You'd think that betting on the top ranked golfer to win the most prestigious tournament on the schedule would be an easy strategy, but that hasn't been the case in recent years. Since 2005, only two golfers who were ranked No. 1 in the world have won the Masters. Tiger Woods did it in 2005, and Dustin Johnson achieved it in 2020.
Scott Scheffler was recently awarded that honor, so while he may seem like an auto-bet this week, you should consider this trend.
Stay Away from Golfers Making Their Masters Debut
Will Zalatoris made headlines last year when he made a Sunday charge at the Masters, finishing in second place in his Masters debut, but rest assured, that's not the norm. The last Masters debutant to win the tournament was Fuzzy Zoeller back in 1979.
There are 18 Masters debutants, but the top names who could break this streak are Sam Burns, Tom Hoge, Talor Gooch, Sepp Straka, and Harold Varner III. I'm personally going to be staying away from that group, and Burns is the only one who is even tempting to bet on.
Peaking at the Right Time is Important
Recent form is huge when it comes to winning the Masters.
Datagolf.com did an interesting study comparing the performance paths of every Masters winner dating back to 1997 ahead of their win at Augusta. According to them, Justin Thomas fits the bill the best in 2022.
"When you combine overall talent level and their Masters run-up trend,Justin Thomas looks to be in the best position to slip on the Green Jacket in 2022."
25 of Last 32 Winners come From Final Group on Sunday
This might not help your betting pre-tournament, but if you're going to place a live bet on Sunday, it's important to note that 25 of the last 32 winners came from the final group in the final round. So if you're looking to live bet, target the group that will be last to tee-off.
10 of Last 11 Winners had a Top 5 Earlier that Year
This goes back to recent form. 10 of the last 11 golfers already had a top 5 finish in the same calendar year that they won the Masters. Charl Schwartzel was the only golfer during that stretch to not have a top five finish ahead of his Masters victory.
Back-to-Backs and Repeat Winners are Extremely Rare
If you're thinking about betting on Hideki Matsuyama to successfully achieve the back-to-back, or if you're considering betting on a former winner, think again.
Only three winners of the tournament have done it in back-to-back years. Jack Nicklaus in 1965 and 1966, Nick Faldo in 1989 and 1990, and Tiger Woods in 2001 and 2002.
Also, since the year 2000, there have only been three golfers who have been repeat winners at Augusta. Tiger Woods, Bubba Watson, and Phil Mickelson.
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.