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The Masters Picks and Betting Preview (Form and Experience Key at Augusta National)

By Iain MacMillan

The 2022 Masters tournament will feature the top golfers in the world as they compete for the green jacket.
The 2022 Masters tournament will feature the top golfers in the world as they compete for the green jacket. / Jared C. Tilton/GettyImages
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Masters week is finally here!

The greatest golf tournament of the year is set to take place at the historic Augusta National Golf Club from Thursday, April 11th, to Sunday, April 14th. Here at BetSided, we'll have tons of analysis, insight, and picks for this week's big tournament. In this article, I'll be giving you an overall betting preview for the event as well as my top three outright picks to win.

Let's start off by looking at the top 10 odds via WynnBET to win the 2022 Masters.

Odds to Win the 2022 Masters

  • Jon Rahm +1100
  • Cameron Smith +1400
  • Collin Morikawa +1400
  • Scottie Scheffler +1400
  • Justin Thomas +1600
  • Rory McIlroy +1600
  • Dustin Johnson +1800
  • Viktor Hovland +1800
  • Brooks Koepka +2000
  • Jordan Spieth +2000

Other notable golfers in the field include Patrick Cantlay (+2200), Xander Schauffele (+2200), Bryson DeChambeau (+3000), and potentially, Tiger Woods (+8000).

How to Handicap Augusta National

Augusta National isn't regarded as one of the toughest challenges in all of golf for no reason. It can be tricky to handicap, as not only does Augusta not release strokes gained data from the event, but the course doesn't favor one style of play over another.

You have to excel in every single aspect of the game to contend at The Masters. If you have a weakness, this course will exploit it. Length and accuracy off the tee is necessary to set yourself up for good second shots, but you need to be good with irons to give yourself any chance at scoring birdies. The firm, tight lies around the greens will expose bad chippers, and the greens themselves are notorious as being some of the firmest to putt on.

Proof of needing to have your game dialed in amongst all areas, is that eight of the last 10 winners of the tournament ranked inside the top 10 in strokes gained: tee-to-green heading into last year's Masters. Will Zalatoris' odds were 120/1 heading into last year, but was fourth in that statistic. If you listened to the trend, you would've been close to cashing that 120/1 ticket as Zalatoris finished second in his Masters debut. It would be shocking for a golfer who hasn't fared well statistically as of late, to end up as the winner on Sunday.

Here are the top 10 golfers in that statistic heading into this week:

  1. Will Zalatoris
  2. Justin Thomas
  3. Luke List
  4. Jon Rahm
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick
  6. Joaquin Niemann
  7. Russell Henley
  8. Daniel Berger
  9. Keegan Bradley (Not in 2022 Masters field)
  10. Chris Kirk

There's no secret trick to handicapping this event. It's truly just finding which golfers are playing their best heading into the tournament, and past experience at the course is usually an asset.

5 Key Stats when Handicapping The Masters

  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
  • Ball Striking
  • Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green
  • Scrambling %
  • Strokes Gained: Putting

Picks to Win 2022 Masters

Justin Thomas +1600

Not many people are talking about Justin Thomas heading into this year's Masters, but he's been sneakily playing some fantastic golf this season, despite not yet securing a win. He's finished 6th or better in five of his 10 starts this season, and a poor draw at The Players championship took him out of contention before he could get going.

He ranks second in strokes gained: tee-to-green and third in total strokes gained, and outside of a slight misstep at last year's event, he's improved his placing at the Masters every year since his debut. I think he holds the best value amongst the top names on the odds list.

Xander Schauffele +2200

I have made it a yearly tradition to bet on Xander Schauffele at the Masters, and he's already broken my heart twice. Why not make it three times? He finished 2nd in 2019, and then made a late charge against Hideki Matsuyama last year before plunking one in the water on the 16th hole to crush the dreams of us Schauffele bettors. He eventually finished T3.

Sure, he's not playing his best golf this season, but he's not playing poorly by any stretch. He's 13th on Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and he's clearly shown that he knows how to attack Augusta National.

I'm ready to get my heart broken again.

Matt Fitzpatrick +5000

We can bet on the golfer who's first on the Tour in total strokes gained this season at +5000? Count me in.

Despite still not winning on North American soil, Matt Fitzpatrick has been playing fantastic golf this season. Outside of the missed cut at The Players, which we can discount due to the insane weather and delays, he's finished 12th or better in five-straight stroke play events.

He also ranks near the top in just about every single measurable statistic. He has no glaring weaknesses, and he already has a T7 at this event in 2016. He's a great value bet at 50/1 this week.

If you want even more picks, I encourage you to check out FanSided's Cody Williams' expert picks article.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

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