The Players Championship Power Rankings and Top 10 Best Bets at TPC Sawgrass

Last week: Happy to cash our second outright with Scottie Scheffler although the payout was pretty low for the heavy favorite. 

This week, the Florida Swing moves North to my old stomping grounds in Ponte Vedra, Florida for the 50th Players Championship at the famed TPC Sawgrass course. Other than The Masters, this is likely the best field of the year on the PGA Tour. 

There is one telling stat to mention. Fourteen of the last 16 winners’ tee times have been the early Thursday/late Friday combination. 

I think it’s always easier to get off to a good start in the calm, morning conditions and post a good score than to have to rally from behind on Friday. I particularly give the edge to those early Thursday starters who tee off on the 10th hole first because they will play the 17th most likely without the swirling winds that crop up in the afternoon.

Many of the favorites will be in most experts’ Top 10 power rankings, but the contrarian in me is sticking to this theme for the week. Tail the hot golfer and be mindful of tee times.

If you want to bet on this week's event, be sure to take advantage of this promotion from BetMGM. For a limited time, new users who sign up for an account using the link below will receive $150 in bonus bets when they place their first $5 wager.

The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass Power Rankings

1. Scottie Scheffler +550

The only negative about Scheffler this week is his afternoon tee time. We probably haven’t seen a favorite with these low odds since the Tiger Woods Era. And rightly so. The World #1 is playing like it, and armed with a new putter, he looked invincible last week. Golf is a funny game. One week you have it, and the next week you don’t. But it’s hard to bet against this defending champion.

2. Shane Lowry +3300

In the last two weeks, the Irishman has lost two 54-hole leads with average-at-best play on Sunday. I hope the chase hasn’t worn him out. Lowry showed that course history may not matter to him as his best prior Bay Hill finish was a T-67 yet he played brilliantly last week.

His best here was a solo eighth finish in 2021 and a T-13 in 2022. He also has a late tee time Thursday, but we are sticking with the hot golfer.

3. Hideki Matsuyama +2800

It appears the 2021 Masters Champ has found his game. After winning the elevated Genesis Invitational, he had a chance to win last week before finishing T-12. Last year, Matsuyama finished T-5 here and has two other Top 10 finishes. He has a late tee time on Thursday.

4. Wyndham Clark +3300

Like Matsuyama, the current US Open winner has also found his game. After winning the elevated Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he contended last week and finished a solid second. Clark hasn’t had much success at the TPC as his best was a T-27 last year to go along with three other missed cuts. He’s got a late afternoon tee time on Thursday, but the winds could be down later in the day.

5. Will Zalatoris +2500

Willy Z is back and contending again. He had a chance to win the last two events he played in before finishing T-2 at the elevated Genesis and T-4 at the elevated Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. If he can get that broomstick putter to work, he will have an excellent chance this week.  His best finish here was in 2021 when he finished 21st. He also has a late afternoon tee time on Thursday and could be playing 17 after the winds have died down.

6. Sam Burns +3300

Watch out for this guy this week. He tees off on 10 early Thursday and is a candidate for FRL and a win. Burns was in contention last week until a final round 78 ended his chances. Before that, he had four consecutive Top 10s, so we will ride the hot golfer. Burns’ best finish here was in 2022 with a T-26.

7. Justin Thomas +2200

JT is showing signs of life but hasn’t put it all together for four straight rounds. Last week, he played well for two rounds before falling off on the weekend and ended up finishing T-12. He had another T-12 at Phoenix, a T-6 at Pebble, and a T-3 at The Amex. JT won here in 2021 and tees off late Thursday with two other former winners, Scottie Scheffler and Rickie Fowler. He should also benefit from dying winds as he plays 17 late Thursday afternoon.

8. Russell Henley +4000

OK, Russell, this is it. It is your last chance before joining the no-bet list. Although I did not bet on him last week, he did his usual tease act for those backers who did. He had many chances to win but ran in place for the last 36 holes and ended up T-4. He had another T-4 at The Sony. He plays well on tough courses and should contend. Henley has three Top 20 finishes here including a T-19 and a T-13 the past two years. He tees off early Thursday which should improve his chances.

9. Min Woo Lee +5000

I have had MWL targeted for this tournament for weeks. I’m happy he has played reasonably well on the Florida Swing and hasn’t won yet. He finished T-2 at The Cognizant two weeks ago and started off well last week in Orlando with a 69 before fading to a T-44 finish. He’s got the game to handle this difficult course. Last year in his first appearance he finished T-6, and he has an optimal early tee time on Thursday starting on the back nine.

10. Si Woo Kim +4500

This is a bit of a hunch-pick. SWK has had previous success here including a win in 2017 and a T-9 in 2021. Last year, he finished T-27, and he has the optimal early Thursday tee time going off on number 10. So far this year, he has two T-12 finishes and ranks 43 in the FedEx Cup standings. Last week, he finished T-30. He’s been accurate with his driving and approaches (16th in driving accuracy and 17th in GIR) which should serve well this week.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.