The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass Longshots and First Round Leader Best Bets
By Todd Moser
In this article, I follow up my Power Ranking Best Bests with some longshots and some first round leader (FRL) best bets.
I talked about the theme this week being tail the hot golfer and be mindful of tee times. The early Thursday tee times have won 14 of the last 16 times. Each of our FRLs will be teeing off early.
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The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass Longshot Best Bets
I have two vets with long odds and five hot golfers with huge odds if you’re willing to take the risk.
Keegan Bradley +8000
Bradley has two Top 10s here including a fifth place in 2022 and a T-7 in 2018. He also T-6 in 2019. I think he still is playing with a chip on his shoulder after being snubbed for the Ryder Cup. Bradley had some success early in the year with a playoff loss to Grayson Murray at The Sony and a T-11 at Pebble Beach. He has the beneficial early Thursday tee time as well.
Billy Horschel +10000
This is a home game for BillyHo. He lives in the TPC complex. He has a T-13 and a T-26 here and also benefits from an early Thursday tee time. He missed getting an invite to the Arnold Palmer Invitational by one shot, so I think he will be fired up this week.
Erik van Rooyen +10000
Given his recent form, I think he has a puncher’s chance here. He finished T-13 in 2022, so he has played well here. EVR has five straight Top 25s including a near win at The Cognizant and a T-8 in Mexico. He also has the advantageous early Thursday back nine tee time.
Andrew Novak +12500
This is guy is on a roll. T-9, T-8, and T-8 in his last three tournaments including some final pairings. First timers don’t fare too well here, but I’ll take a shot.
Jake Knapp +15000
I’m sure Knapp is out of gas by now as this will be his sixth consecutive event. But given those odds, how can you pass it up with all that talent? He has one win and could have had two more.
Garrick Higgo +30000
These are pretty good odds for a guy who has a win on tour. Higgo has recently returned from injury and has played well the last two weeks. He opened with a 66 in Puerto Rico before finishing T-32, and the week before at The Cognizant, he finished T-16.
The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass First Round Leader (FRL) Best Bets
Sam Burns +4000
Burns ranks sixth on our Power Rankings. He’s on form. His streak of Top 10s ended at four last week thanks to a final round 78. Burns ranks 18th in first round scoring average this year.
Jordan Spieth +4000
Spieth is T-8 in first round scoring average and has the advantageous early back nine tee time. He finished T-19 here last year.
Xander Schauffele +3000
X is on the no-bet outright list, but I’ll take a shot with him for FRL. He ranks second in first round scoring average at 65.00. He is playing with Burns with the early back nine Thursday tee time. He finished T-19 here last year and had a T-2 in 2018.
Si Woo Kim +5000
The 2017 Players Champion ranks 10th on our Power Rankings. He ranks 64th in first round scoring average at 69.50 and has the preferred early back nine Thursday tee time. He also had a T-9 finish in 2021.
Min Woo Lee +5500
MWL ranks ninth on our Power Rankings. He ranks a solid 39th in first round scoring average at 69.00. Last year, he played well here finishing with a T-6.
Chesson Hadley +12500
We need a longshot. Hadley is T-2 in first round scoring average at 65.00 and is the first group teeing off Thursday morning. He finished T-44 here last year and opened with a 66 in 2018 before finishing T-11.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.