The Sunday Spread: Best NFL Spread Bets Today for Week 16

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew II (10) throws a pass Sunday, Dec. 10, 2023, while
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew II (10) throws a pass Sunday, Dec. 10, 2023, while / Robert Scheer/IndyStar / USA TODAY

With only three weeks left in the regular season, the action is heating up, and we want to fill our sports betting accounts before the end of the season.

Look no further than our BetSided team's best picks against the spread on Sunday, including a handful that have playoff implications. Who should you trust to cover the number in the final weeks of the season, including betting breakdowns for the Colts vs. Falcons, Dolphins vs. Cowboys and Lions vs. Vikings.

Here's the Sunday Spread for Week 16!

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Best Picks Against the Spread for NFL Week 16

  • Colts (-2.5) vs. Falcons
  • Lions vs. Vikings (+3)
  • Dolphins (-1.5) vs. Cowboys

Colts vs. Falcons Prediction and Pick

As our Peter Dewey notes, this is a mismatch between one of the best against the spread teams and one of the worst, setting up for a slam spot in this battle between the Colts and Falcons.

The Falcons are one of the worst ATS teams in th NFL, going 4-10 through 14 games. 

Meanwhile, the Colts are 9-5 against the spread and thriving on offense even with Jonathan Taylor out. I am fading Atlanta after it lost outright to Carolina in Week 15. 

PICK: Colts -2.5

Lions vs. Vikings Prediction and Pick

As our Iain MacMillian notes in his weekly 'Road to 272,' there are a ton of strong indicators to take the Vikings as home underdogs:

I love this Vikings defense. The Bengals ended up figuring them out by the end of the game last week, but I'm going to once again back them getting a field goal in this divisional showdown. Dating back to Week 6 of the NFL, the Vikings are third in the NFL in opponent EPA per Play.

You also have to like what you saw from Nick Mullens in last week's loss. Sure, he threw two interceptions, but he completed 26-of-33 passes for 303 yards and also added two touchdown throws.

Let's also consider how much worse the Lions have been on the road this year. Their Net Yards per Play goes from +1.3 at home down to -0.1 on the road, a difference of 1.4.

I'll take the field goal with Minnesota.

PICK: Vikings +3

Dolphins vs. Cowboys Prediction and Pick

The Cowboys were exposed last Sunday in Buffalo, a team that has skated by on an easy schedule that features defenses that can't hang with the high octane Cowboys offense.

While there are some concerns about the Dolphins strength of schedule, I believe these two teams are fairly similar, equipped with weapons on offense to outpace opponents, but the Dolphins defense has been far better, up to third in EPA/Play on defense.

This is a ton of respect for the Cowboys, who are playing its third straight high level opponent and second straight on the road.

I think Miami gets it done at home.

PICK: Dolphins -1.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.