The Sunday Spread: Best NFL Spread Bets Today for Week 18

Dec 31, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) takes the
Dec 31, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) takes the / Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Last call for all your spread bets!

The BetSided team weighed in with some of their favorite spread bets on the board, including one of the biggest games on the Sunday slate with the Packers hosting the Bears in a win-and-in scenario for Green Bay. Can Jordan Love lead the Packers back to the playoffs in his first season as the starter?

We answer some of the biggest questions ahead of Sunday below!

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Best Against the Spread Picks for NFL Week 18

  • Jets vs. Patriots (-2.5)
  • Browns (+7) vs. Bengals
  • Bears vs. Packers (-3)

Jets vs. Patriots Prediction and Pick

Our betting expert Iain MacMillian is all over the Patriots, broken down in his weekly Road to 272:

I've been betting on the Patriots the past few weeks with some success and I'll continue to do so for the exact same reason; I think they're actually better than their record indicates. Despite being 4-12, they're 14th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.1, the same mark as the Philadelphia Eagles.

A big reason for that is their elite defense which is indisputably the best run defense in the league, keeping teams to gaining just 3.2 yards per carry.

Neither offense is good. In fact, they're both horrific, but it's the Patriots who edge them out in yards per play, EPA per play, and success rate.

I'll back the Patriots as short home favorites in this AFC East matchup.

Browns vs. Bengals Prediction and Pick

The Browns are one of Peter Dewey's favorite bets of the Week 18 slate. He explains below:

Cincinnati technically has nothing to play for, and both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have been banged up. Who says they don’t sit in Week 18?

The Browns are also an impressive 10-5-1 ATS this season. 

Bears vs. Packers Prediction and Pick

The Packers are in a similar spot as last season, needing to win in its final game of the season at home against an upstart division rival, this time its the Chicago Bears.

The Bears are surging down the stretch of the season, but have benefitted from a fortunate schedule, beating the Vikings, Lions, Cardinals and Falcons, all but the Minnesota win coming at home. While the Lions win deserves credit, the other three victories feature offenses that are bottom half of the league in EPA/Play.

The Bears defense is playing better, but will face a stiff test in the Packers offense, which is now seventh on the year in EPA/Play and second since Week 11.

While there is typically a tax on betting on teams that are in win-and-in scenarios, I think we are getting a fair price here to back Green Bay at home. While the defense gives me pause, I'll take the Packers to take care of business at home and knock off the Bears.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.