This Stat Shows Why Nikola Jokic Is Great Bet to Win NBA MVP

All-Star Weekend in the NBA has come and gone, and as each team gears up for the finals stretch of the season, we are going to take a closer look at some of the award races throughout the league. 

Right now, Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid is the favorite to win the league’s MVP award ahead of reigning MVP Nikola Jokic at WynnBET Sportsbook. However, I discussed on the Bet & Breakfast podcast on Monday why I think Jokic is worth a bet at +280 odds to be named MVP for the second straight season. 

There are a variety of factors involved that could lead to Jokic winning the MVP award, but I want to start with his actual impact on the court. The Denver Nuggets big man has a net rating per 100 possessions of plus-20.1, and it’s even more impressive when you see the difference between when he’s on the floor versus when he’s off the floor for Denver. 

To put this in perspective, the Nuggets would have the worst net rating in the NBA (minus-10.4) if you only looked at the non-Jokic minutes this season. Essentially, Jokic is carrying this team to playoff relevancy night in and night out. 

There is no denying Jokic’s value to his team, but the issue is the MVP award traditionally goes to a player that leads his team to the best record, or one of the top records, in his respective conference. 

Embiid and the Sixers still have a shot at that, as they are 2.5 games out of the No. 1 seed in the East and are the No. 3 seed at the moment. Denver, on the other hand, is 15 games out of the No. 1 seed and sixth in the West. 

However, according to Tankathon the Nuggets have the 23rd hardest schedule remaining this season, while the Sixers, who now have James Harden as well, are 12th. 

This could allow Jokic and Denver to go on a run similar to last season when the Nuggets ended up with the No. 4 seed in the West. If Jokic can do that, despite now having Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. for the majority of the 2021-22 season, he would be deserving of the MVP award in my book. 

There’s also the Harden factor. We have yet to see Embiid and Harden play together, but is it possible that the former MVP cuts into Embiid’s workload and knocks him down the MVP ladder. 

It’s not impossible. 

Embiid’s recent tear has been a product of him putting the team on his back, like Jokic often does, but that burden gets a whole lot lighter with Harden in town. 

It may propel the Sixers to the No. 1 seed, which would then make Embiid’s case stronger, but if Philly slips and so does Embiid’s production simply because of Harden’s usage, there’s a path for Jokic to overtake the Sixers big man. 

Right now, either player is a solid bet to win MVP, but I think if we are truly looking at value, this is an award that should be Jokic’s for the second season in a row.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.