Tigers vs. Twins Prediction and Odds for Monday, August 1 (Skubal Gives Tigers Edge)

The Minnesota Twins are quickly losing their grip on the AL Central and risk falling out of the playoffs entirely if they can't take advantage of this series with the Detroit Tigers.

Cleveland sits just 1.5 games behind Minnesota, while the White Sox are two back. After losing four of five, the Twins are expected to send Devin Smeltzer to the mound this afternoon. He's struggled of late, with an 8.76 ERA in July, but is stellar at home.

Tarik Skubal starts for Detroit after not allowing a single earned run over his last two outings. In 12 innings, he surrendered just five hits while striking out 11 as he's returning to the dominant form from the beginning of the season.

Can Skubal's hot streak continue or will Smeltzer give Minnesota a much-needed home victory?

To find the value in this Tigers vs Twins series opener, let's first check out the consensus odds:

Tigers vs Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Tigers -1.5 (+180)
• Twins +1.5 (-230)

Moneyline:

• Tigers: +104
• Twins: -121

Total:

• 7.0 (Over -112/Under -107)

Tigers vs Twins Prediction and Pick

I wrote last week how Tarik Skubal's underlying metrics are back in line with his dominant May, and he proceeded to throw six strong innings against San Diego while limiting the Padres to two hits and no earned runs. If this Skubal is back, Minnesota is in real trouble today.

The Tigers have won three of four behind their ace and he's already thrown seven shutout innings against the Twins this season. With Minnesota losing four of six as home favorites, there's real value on Detroit.

At the least, Skubal is a much better pitcher than Devin Smeltzer. Skubal has a 2.98 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) while Smeltzer's is a pathetic 5.50. Minnesota has four straight losses by Smeltzer, who allowed six home runs in just three July starts.

Detroit's lineup is smashing left-handed pitchers too, ranking seventh in OPS against them in July. I can't trust the Twins right now, but I can trust Skubal.

Take the value on the Tigers as short underdogs as their lineup hammers Smeltzer and Skubal dazzles.

Pick: Tigers (+104)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.