Timberwolves Have Value to Win NBA Championship After Game 1 Upset vs. Nuggets

The Minnesota Timberwolves pulled off a massive upset in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals, defeating the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena.

It's only the second time since the start of last postseason that Denver has lost at home (it also lost Game 2 of last season's NBA Finals), and it could be a sign that the Nuggets are a little more vulnerable than expected.

In fact, Minnesota is now favored to beat Denver in this series, but the team's odds to win the NBA Finals are still behind the Nuggets. Does that mean they have value at this point in the postseason?

Let's break it down:

Latest Odds to Win the NBA Championship

Right now, Minnesota is No. 2 among the four Western Conference teams remaining to win the NBA Finals this season.

While the Wolves still have a long way to go, the team's path appears to be easier -- in the eyes of oddsmakers -- if it knocks off Denver. Both the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks are way behind the Wolves in the latest odds despite not playing a game in their second-round series.

Timberwolves Have Value to Win NBA Finals

I've mentioned a key stat to watch all season long -- net rating -- when it comes to picking a team to win the NBA Finals.

Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the Finals has finished in the top eight in the league in net rating during the regular season.

As of now, on the Nuggets, Timberwolves, Thunder, New York Knicks and Finals favorite Boston Celtics remain that fit that criteria.

All season long, Minnesota's defense (No. 1 in the NBA in defensive rating) has been dominant, and it could be the difference-maker against some of these high-powered offensive teams left in the playoffs.

While the Wolves still have a long way to go against Denver, the team could be sitting at the best price it'll see if it also steals Game 2 on Monday night.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.