Top College Basketball Picks and Predictions Today (Trust Dayton Creighton and More on Monday)
Looking to place some college basketball bets on Monday?
BetSided's Reed Wallach and Ben Heisler have some great picks lined up, so we put them together in on spot for you to tail (or fade) on Monday night.
Let's get into the games with all odds via WynnBET Sportsbook:
UMBC vs. New Hampshire Prediction and Pick
Despite losing by 11 just nine days ago, I like the Wildcats to cover the short home line in today's matinee.
The Retrievers getting smoked by UMass Lowell on Saturday was eye-opening. They let the River Hawks get to wherever they wanted on the court, shooting 64.4% from the floor and giving up 52 points in the second half. They also got destroyed 28-17 on the glass. This sets up well for the Wildcats who are second in the conference in offensive rebounding percentage, and also don't turn the ball over; ranking second in the league in turnover percentage.
New Hampshire is much more likely to dictate tempo at home. They rank 355 out of 358 in average possession length, so they'll slow things down on the offensive end and drag out possessions. UMBC is much more up-tempo, averaging 16.7 seconds per possession length overall, and 17.3 in conference play.
Last time out, UMBC was cooking, shooting 64.7% from field goal range and 56% from downtown, and still got outplayed in the second half after closing the first with an 18-point lead. I don't anticipate a similar performance on the road today.
LEAN: New Hampshire -2 (-110) -- Ben Heisler
Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting picks in real-time HERE!
Virginia vs. Virginia Tech Prediction and Pick
The Hokies are starting to show their potential on the offensive side of the ball, 12th in effective field goal percentage and top 100 in limiting turnovers.
This game is going to be an absolute rock fight with limited possessions, each team is bottom 20 in adjusted tempo, which may make it difficult for one team to pull away from another. The first meeting between the two teams ended 54-52 if you need an indication on how this one will likely play out.
However, I do believe Va. Tech is the right side with their shot making. Virginia struggles to shoot from beyond the arc, 224th in the country, and doesn't draw a ton of fouls either, 248th in free throw rate. The team's offensive weapons are severely limited and I think we see a rowdy environment in Blacksburg for this rivalry game. With the better offense and similar defenses, I'll side with the Hokies.
The Cavaliers grabbed a late win and cover in the first meeting and I'm starting to buy into the Hokies as a dark horse ACC team. I like them to pull away and get the job done tonight, but would prefer to pair their money line with another favorite considering there will be a limited amount of possessions.
LEAN: Virginia Tech ML -- Reed Wallach
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!
Dayton vs. Rhode Island Prediction and Pick
This matchup is going to come down to what Dayton's offense can do as the defense should have little issue limiting URI big man Makhi Mitchell and the anemic Rams offense. Rhode Island is outside the top 200 nationally in KenPom's offensive efficiency metric and struggle to protect the rock, turning it over on more than 21% of their possessions.
Dayton's defense is forcing more turnovers in conference play, up more than 2% to fourth in A-10 play at more than 20%, but also are elite at rebounding on both ends of the floor. URI might bolster a strong defense, but the team won't be able to score against the length of Dayton's defense. Further, the team is shooting 57% from the free throw line as a team.
Anthony Grant's team struggled to find sound offense late at home in the first meeting against Rhode Island, but there is reason for optimism. The team is posting the best three-point percentage in conference play at nearly 41% and Rhode Island is happy to let teams shoot from outside as the 6'9" Mitchell patrols the paint. The Rams are allowing a 40.3% three-point rate to A-10 foes this season.
I like Dayton to get the job done and win at Rhode Island, especially after the Rams scored an upset win over Davidson in a game that had some outlier free throw shooting from the typically poor free throw shooting Rams (19-of-23 as a team).
LEAN: Dayton -1.5 -- Reed Wallach
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas Prediction and Pick
I mentioned part of my handicap on Monday's Bet & Breakfast but I'm expecting a high scoring affair in Lawrence, Kansas for this matchup.
These two played last month in Stillwater and the game closed at 144.5. While the game finished with 137 points, Kansas didn't score for the final 8+ minutes of the first half, leading to a suppressed score line.
The Jayhawks offense and Poke defense are the two best units on the floor and should make for an intriguing matchup, but both teams want to run. Both are inside KenPom's top 100 in adjusted tempo and Oklahoma State should be able to score around the rim against an overrated Kansas defense, the Jayhawks have the worst defense at the rim in Big 12 play, per Haslemetrics.
I think Kansas ends up pulling away late, but the Cowboys should be able to get their fair share of points here with extra possessions for both sides. I envision the final looking like 80-65 with the Jayhawks securing a late cover in front of the home crowd.
PICK: OVER 143 -- Reed Wallach
Georgetown vs. Creighton Prediction and Pick
It's tough to expect anything but a blowout here in Omaha. Georgetown is winless in conference play and has zero answers inside against the size of Creighton. The Jays are top 10 nationally in two-point defense and top 50 on the offensive side of the ball.
Meanwhile, Georgetown is bottom 20 in two-point percentage and outside the top 100 on the defensive side of the ball. This is not your father's Creighton team that fires from beyond the arc, they like to pound the rock inside and overwhelm opponents at the rim. The team is top 10 in finishing at the rim this season, Georgetown is 277th in that metric.
The Hoyas are 2-5 against the spread (ATS) away from home and Creighton has the size to generate enough easy scores and win this game with margin. Even though there is a familiarity factor considering the two just played on Saturday, I'm still fading G'Town.
LEAN: Creighton -11 -- Reed Wallach