Top College Basketball Picks and Predictions Today (Back Tennessee, Providence, Indiana on Feb. 15)
There are several top-25 teams in action in college basketball on Tuesday, and the BetSided team is here to help you navigate the action.
Here are some of our top plays across college hoops for Feb. 15, with all odds via WynnBET Sportsbook:
Kent State vs. Toledo Prediction and Pick
If you're going to take a side with Toledo, it's almost inevitable that they're going to cover. They haven't played a close game in over a month, winning by three on the road against Ball State. Every other matchup has been a blowout win by eight or more points in seven of their last eight matchups.
While both teams are at or near the top of the MAC standings, this is a much bigger mismatch for Kent State and the odds reflect that.
Toledo comes in as the No. 68 ranked team in the country over at KenPom, a full 92 teams ahead of Kent State. They're extremely efficient on offense, ranking first in the conference and 31st in the country. They also are a superb free throw shooting team, ranking eighth-best in college basketball at 79% on the season.
While Kent State actually matches up well based on their defensive metrics in conference (2nd in defensive efficiency, and 3rd in effective field goal percentage), the numbers get more more eye-opening when compared to every team in the country (111th in defensive efficiency, 114th in effective FG %). The Golden Flashes will need every bit of their defense to rise up if they plan to slow down one of the better offenses in college hops.
The Rockets have been one of the better teams against the spread this season, They've gone 75% ATS, going 18-6-0 vs. the number with an ATS +/- of 5.2 via TeamRankings with a 12.3-point average margin of victory. I'm buying them to cruise and cover the 8.5 at home easily.
PICK: Toledo -8.5 (-110) -- Ben Heisler
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Villanova vs. Providence Prediction and Pick
Villanova might be the better team, but boy are you paying quite a tax to bet them in a big game on the road. The Friars are elite at defending the rim this season, holding foes to a bottom 30 field goal percentage at the rim.
Meanwhile, the pace to this one is going to be slow with each possession being maximized, Nova has the slowest average offensive possession length and Providence has the third slowest.
With that in mind, Jay Wright's zone defense is going to give the Friars opportunities to shoot from three, allowing the second highest three-point rate in the Big East and the home team can make them pay, hitting on 37% of their three's (second best in Big East play).
Cooley has a veteran bunch on his team, including Al Durham and Nate Watson, and his teams have historically played Nova close in the past. Dating back to 2018, the Friars have beaten the Wildcats three times. Cooley knows how to beat this zone defense and the Friars are 7-1 as an underdog this season.
In a low possession game, I think we are getting a good price on a team that nobody believes is as good as their 21-2 record. Maybe they aren't that good, but they are good enough to cover the spread on Tuesday.
PICK: Providence +4.5 -- Reed Wallach
All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 60-54-3 for +2.9 units.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick
I mentioned at the top that the Volunteers have not lost a game at Thompson-Boling Arena this year. Not only are they undefeated, but they've been absolutely untouchable. The Volunteers are 13-0 at home with an average margin of victory of +20.5 points.
Stylistically, both teams match up well against each other. The Wildcats are fourth in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, but the Vols are sixth in adjusted defense. Both teams have outstanding length and size, so it's no surprise that both teams are amongst the best in the country in offensive rebounding percentage as well as blocks.
Here's where I believe the game will be won: turnovers and 3-point shots.
Kentucky is tops in the SEC in turnovers allowed, and Tennessee is No. 1 in forced turnovers. In a close game, a few costly mistakes can be the difference in both winning and covering the spread. The Wildcats also rank No. 1 in three point percentage at 37.6%, but the Vols are right behind them at 35.7%; third in the SEC. If Tennessee can shore up their defense in guarding on the perimeter, that will also help close the gap.
The Vols will be fired up at home, especially after getting blown out in Lexington 101-79 exactly one month ago. I like them to get the win, but feel a tad more comfortable on the moneyline without giving up the two points.
LEAN: Tennessee ML -125 -- Ben Heisler
Arkansas vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick
Missouri's offense is set to struggle against an Arkansas defense that is now ranked 20th in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric. The Hogs have a strong interior around big man Jaylin Williams and are also capable of generating a ton of turnovers, top 50 in that metric. Missouri has had issues protecting the rock, outside the top 300 in that mark this season, according to KenPom.
The Razorbacks offense is still a work in progress but should be able to get downhill and draw a ton of fouls against a handsy Missouri defense. The only thing holding me off this bet is the scheduling spot as I mentioned above. Eric Musselman's team has played back-to-back emotional games and has another tough matchup on deck, the team can take their foot off the gas late or come out a bit flat with a lousy opponent.
I do lean towards Arkansas getting it done late, but I'm more interested in either live betting the Hogs on the ML at closer to even money, or siding with the over given the amount of possessions projected with Arkansas fast pace and ability to force steals and get easy buckets.
LEAN: Arkansas, OVER 137.5 -- Reed Wallach
Wisconsin vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick
Johnny Davis may be a National Player of the Year candidate, but the sum of the parts is starting to come up short for Wisconsin, who is posting a bottom 100 effective field goal percentage this season. The Badgers protect the ball well, second lowest turnover rate in the country, but will struggle in a tough Assembly Hall environment against a stout IU defense.
The Hoosiers have the fifth best two-point defense in the country and are 56th in defensive rebounding rate. While there are some concerns about their offense, their ability to get inside and finish with the likes of Trayce Jackson-Davis should be enough to grab a victory.
Indiana squandered a 20-point second half lead to Wisconsin in Madison earlier this season, and the Hoosiers should be motivated to exact some revenge at home.
LEAN: Indiana -3 -- Reed Wallach