Top College Basketball Picks and Predictions Today (Bet Houston, Minnesota and Two Totals on Feb. 17)
Who's looking to make some picks on the college basketball action on Thursday night?
BetSided's Iain MacMillan and Reed Wallach have broke down a bunch of tonight's games, and here are some of their top picks with all odds via WynnBET Sportsbook:
Minnesota vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick
These two teams are extremely similar in several categories, and I don't see any reason why you shouldn't back Minnesota as 6-point underdogs.
Minnesota ranks 132nd in effective field goal percentage, and Penn State is right behind them ranking 163rd. The two teams also rank 197th and 228th in defensive efficiency.
While I wouldn't look at a one game sample size as evidence, I think the last game between these two teams perfectly illustrates how they match up with each other. They both put up similar shooting numbers, but Penn State had a massive rebounding advantage, out rebounding Minnesota 36-21. However, that was balanced out by turnovers, of which Penn State committed 13 and Minnesota only committed three.
I wouldn't feel comfortable taking Minnesota to beat them again, but I think this game is much closer than six points.
Lean: Minnesota +6 (-110) -- Iain MacMillan
Iain is 65-58-2 (+3.45 units) with his college basketball bets this 2021-22 season. You can find his detailed record for the 2022 calendar year here.
Michigan vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick
While it feels that the over is the play with Iowa's recent stretch of offense, hanging 208 points over their past two games, I believe we are going to see a methodical pace from Michigan that will force feed big man Hunter Dickinson.
Dickinson has been a monster down low, scoring 19 or more points in seven of his last games, but the Wolverines haven't seen a zone defense much at all this season, making it a tough prep against Fran McCaffrey's unique zone look that he deploys at times.
On the defensive side, Michigan is far from impressive but I do believe we are getting an overvalued Iowa offense that is coming off of a scorching two games. The Wolverines are a strong defensive rebounding team and are going to look to avoid a track meet, so I believe they can succeed in that regard even if they can't cover the spread, which I have lined right around 5.5.
I'm looking at the under as my favorite lean in this Big Ten meeting due to schematic issues for the Wolverines offense.
LEAN: Under 151 -- Reed Wallach
All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 65-58-3 for +4.2 units.
Wichita State vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Pick
I find the total quite interesting and may play the under. If I do you can find that in my best bets article later today, but here's the case.
The total closed 134.5 in the team's first meeting that finished with a 61-57 Bearcats win. The two teams are strong on defense and do a great job of defending the rim, each inside the top 50 in near proximity field goal percentage allowed, per Haslemetrics.
Neither offense is that strong with each in the bottom 100 in effective field goal percentage and the Shockers are prone to just hoisting from deep and banking on the likes of Tyson Etienne and Ricky Council to bail them out. However, Wichita State is shooting just 33% from beyond the arc in AAC play, it's simply inefficient offense.
There's going to be a methodical pace to this one, but the concern of free throws at the end has me a bit concerned. Cincinnati struggles in that department, shooting 67% as a team while Wichita State boasts the best free throw percentage in AAC play. If this game is tight late, there can be a ton of fouls to send this game over.
With that in mind, my best look is towards the under considering the recent history between the two teams and their defensive minded basketball. This game may be ugly and a race to 60.
LEAN: Under 136 -- Reed Wallach
UCF vs. Houston Prediction and Pick
Houston will give UCF what they want on offense: the 3-point shot.
The Cougars defense is built to shut off the interior (top ten in two-point defense) by allowing the 24th highest three-point rate this season, but defend it super well, holding foes below 30% from deep. The Knights are top 70 in three-point rate, but struggle to protect the ball at all, placing outside the top 270 in the country.
They are sure to struggle with Houston's high ball pressure defense that is forcing turnovers at a near 20% clip in AAC play. Sure, UCF can hit a few three's, but it won't be efficient offense as Houston takes advantage of their opponents middling defense at the rim. UCF is allowing a middle of the pack field goal percentage while the Cougars are top 10 in finishing around the rim and have the best offensive rebounding rate in the AAC.
I expect we see a motivated Houston team that wants to take out their frustrations on their opponent, so I see them covering this double digit spread with relative ease.
LEAN: Houston -13.5 -- Reed Wallach