Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Back Brewers, Angels, Yankees and One Total on Thursday, May 26)
We've got some fantastic matchups in Major League Baseball on Thursday, and the BetSided team has you covered with their top picks.
Iain MacMillan, Peter Dewey, Matt De Saro and Joe Summers broke down a bunch of games, with all odds via WynnBET to get you ready for the May 26 action.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels Prediction and Pick
Having Shohei Ohtani on the mound always helps, but can we talk about this Angels offense?
With Mike Trout and Ohtani healthy, the Angels are absolutely mashing, ranking second in MLB in OPS and home runs. They are also fourth in runs scored through their first 45 games.
Hyun Jin Ryu has allowed just one run over 10.2 innings in his two starts since landing on the injured list earlier this year, but his advanced numbers tell me I should stay away in this matchup.
Ryu ranks in the third percentile in average exit velocity, the ninth percentile in expected batting average against and the ninth percentile in hard hit percentage, per Baseball Savant.
That’s a lot of blue.
Ohtani has a 2.82 ERA this season, but his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) suggests he’s been even better at 2.15. He’s the starter to trust in this matchup.
Lean: Angels Moneyline (-156) -- Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics Prediction and Pick
This is a game between two of the worst offenses in Major League Baseball, with both teams putting out a couple of the top pitchers in their respective rotations. I don't see how you can bet on anything other than the UNDER. It's set at a low number of 6.5 for a reason, but the low total doesn't scare me.
The two teams rank 25th and 29th in both batting average and OPS in the month of May, with the Rangers having the slight advantage. Meanwhile, Martin Perez has a stellar ERA of 1.64 through his first eight starts this season. I'd be shocked if the A's can produce any significant offense against him. He hasn't allowed more than one run since his second start of the season.
It's the UNDER or nothing for me in this battle of basement dwellers.
Lean: UNDER 6.5 (+100) -- Iain MacMillan
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction and Pick
The Rays have to be kicking themselves after losing two of three to the Orioles last weekend while the Yankees were getting smoked by the White Sox. It was a great chance to close the gap in the AL East. Now the Rays have to hope that they start off this series strong against the hottest pitcher on the Yankees, Nestor Cortes. The 27-year-old southpaw has been the alpha on a team full of hot arms. Cortes enters this game at 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA and squeaky clean 0.89 WHIP in 45 innings. The Yankees are 6-2 straight up in games Cortes starts and on a 3-0 streak.
Cortes also has one of the highest-scoring offenses at his back with the Yankees averaging 4.79 runs per game. They lead the league in home runs while ranking third in walks and sixth in RBIs.
The Rays are starting opener Ryan Yarborough Thursday’s game, but their overall pitching stats are quite strong with a team ERA of 3.31. But I think they will have a tough time keeping up with Cortes. If he can maintain his current course, the Rays are going to have a rough day at the plate.
Pick: Yankees ML (-125) -- Matt De Saro
Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction and Pick
Eric Lauer and Adam Wainwright make for an elite pitching matchup between two teams with World Series aspirations. Milwaukee has the third-highest OPS against right-handed pitchers this month while St. Louis leads MLB in OPS against lefties.
In short, this is a heavyweight title bout of strength vs strength at every level. Lauer ranks in the 93rd percentile in strikeout percentage and 84th in walk rate, displaying exceptional command while generating swings-and-misses. But, he's in just 33rd percentile in average exit velocity, so he can be beat, especially with heavy winds expected today. He's given up seven home runs this year and needs to limit hard contact to beat a potent Cardinals lineup.
Wainwright does an incredible job in that department, ranking in the 95th percentile in hard hit percentage. If he's had an Achilles Heel, it's been command. He's in just the 35th percentile in walk rate, while Milwaukee is ninth in average walks per game.
The Brewers are underdogs for just the fifth time this season and but have won two of their last three. They've been impressive on the road; 12-7 over their previous 19, while the Cardinals have been shaky as a home favorite. St. Louis is 4-4 in their last eight when favored at Busch Stadium, including a loss to Arizona with Wainwright pitching.
Ultimately, I'm inclined to trust Lauer and his strong command over Wainwright. Two of Wainwright's three dominant starts this month came against the Pirates and Royals, amongst the worst lineups in baseball. Milwaukee is 6-1 when Lauer pitches this season and have the superior bullpen.
Back the Brewers in a highly-competitive contest.
Pick: Brewers (+107) -- Joe Summers
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.