Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Back Guardians, Plus Two Totals to Play on Monday)

Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Cal Quantrill (47).
Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Cal Quantrill (47). / Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, there are two Monday Night Football games tonight, but why not get your betting day started right with some baseball plays?

We have a pick for the early Cleveland Guardians-Minnesota Twins matchup, as well as a few other plays to make on Sept. 19.

Let's jump right in, with odds from FanDuel:

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Odds, Prediction and Pick

The total in this game is huge at 11.5, which will come with the territory playing at Coors Field. 

However, I think there is value on taking the UNDER, with the Giants offense struggling as of late. 

To start, the Giants are 29th in OPS over the last two weeks, and they have scored just 40 runs (also 29th in MLB) over that stretch. In the Giants’ last 16 games, they have not cleared 11.5 combined runs once. 

While the Rockies have played some high-scoring games this season, they are a better team at home (40-34), which leads me to believe they can handle this Giants team that has struggled at the dish this season. 

Chad Kuhl has been better at home (4.67 ERA) in 2022, so I’ll make the contrarian play for a game at Coors and go UNDER. 

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Odds, Prediction and Pick

Cal Quantrill has been stellar this season, posting a 3.11 ERA by generating soft contact. He doesn't walk many batters, less than three per nine innings, and should challenge a Twins lineup that is lost at the plate during their September slide.

Minnesota is 20th in on-base percentage in September and with their middling batting average (.237), will struggle against the command driven pitch arsenal of Quantrill. Meanwhile, I expect the Guardians to do enough at the plate to get past the Twins.

The team doesn't strikeout, the team has the lowest strikeout rate in the big leagues this month, below 17% and are top 10 in on-base percentage. While Sonny Gray has been great on the season, I'm going to trust the better lineup and the sturdy pitcher to hold up against a struggling offense.

The Guardians are 18-10 in Quantrill's 28 starts on the season and I'll grab them as small home favorites.

Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Odds, Prediction and Pick

The Braves are rightfully massive favorites tonight. They lead the season series against Washington, 10-3 and just swept the Phillies. They have the much better pitcher on the mound in Kyle Wright who has a 3.18 ERA and an 18-5 record, and the Nationals could be without Nelson Cruz. Cruz is day-to-day with an eye injury and did not play in Sunday’s loss to Miami. Miraculously Cruz is the team’s RBI leader with 64 and OBP leader at just .313. 

I’ll say that again, of the players on the Nationals who have played enough games to qualify and are still currently on the team, Nelson Cruz’s .313 on base percentage is the best on the team. 

I just don’t see much value in taking the Braves on the moneyline with -164 odds the best I can find. If it moved to -2.5 on the run line at even or plus odds then I would absolutely take that, but for now the run line is a stay away for me. 

Cory Abbot has a 4.37 ERA, but an awful 5.88 fielding independent pitching that could signal impending regression. I’ll lean towards the over in this one because I think Atlanta could have an offensive explosion especially if Abbot has to cover a lot of innings. 

Lean: Over 8.5 (-105) -- Josh Yourish

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE