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Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Back Orioles, Guardians, Phillies and Rockies on Thursday)

By Peter Dewey, Iain MacMillan, Josh Yourish

Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Bryce Harper.
Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Bryce Harper. / Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
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We have a few early games on the Major League Baseball slate on Thursday, July 28, and the BetSided team has four teams you should back in today's action.

Peter Dewey, Iain MacMillan and Josh Yourish are previewing the games today, and they have a few picks they love, with two moneyline favorites and two teams to back on the run line.

Here are their top picks, with odds via WynnBET and DraftKings:

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Run Line: Rays +1.5 (-190) | Orioles -1.5 (+155)
  • Moneyline: Rays +107 | Orioles -117
  • Total: 9 (Over -115/Under -105)

I’m rolling with the Orioles in this spot, and there are a few reasons why. 

First, let’s start with the Baltimore side. Sure, Jordan Lyles has been far from lights out this season, but the O’s have one of the league’s best bullpens (third in bullpen ERA At 3.04).

Not only that, but the Orioles bats have come alive as of late, ranking 10th in OPS and 15th in runs scored over the last 15 days. That’s a huge advantage over Tampa, who is struggling as a whole at the plate, ranking in the bottom 10 in OPS for the season. 

The Orioles are the best run line team in the league and the best run line team at home, which gives me a lot of confidence in them to simply just win this game. 

Then, when you look at Ryan Yarbrough’s numbers, you know this is an auto-bet on Baltimore. The Rays have lost the last nine games Yarbrough has appeared in, and they haven’t won a start by him since May 3 against the Oakland Athletics. 

Take the O’s and don’t look back. 

Lean: Orioles ML (-117) -- Peter Dewey

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Run Line: Guardians -1.5 (+145) | Red Sox +1.5 (-175)
  • Moneyline: Guardians -112 | Red Sox +102
  • Total: 9 (Over -115/Under -105)

After a brutal finish to the month of June, Triston McKenzie has been simply unhittable in July. The young righty has four starts this month and he’s allowed just one earned run over 26.1 innings (0.34 ERA) while striking out 27 batters. 

The former first-round pick has thrown 5.2 innings or more in each of those starts, and the Guardians have won seven of his last eight outings. 

Since moving to the starting rotation, Kutter Crawford has been solid for Boston, posting a 3.16 ERA in six starts with the team going 3-3 in those games. 

I wouldn’t mind an UNDER in this game if I could trust the Red Sox bullpen, but the team is bottom-10 in bullpen ERA and the defense has been suspect during this lengthy losing stretch. 

Instead, I’ll back Cleveland as a road favorite, especially after cashing on the Guardians as a dog on Wednesday. McKenzie should handle a Boston lineup without Rafael Devers pretty easily. 

Lean: Guardians ML (-112) -- Peter Dewey

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+100) | Pirates +1.5 (-120)
  • Moneyline: Phillies -183 | Pirates +168
  • Total: 7.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

The Phillies will be trotting out their ace, Zack Wheeler (2.78 ERA), for this National league showdown.

It's going to be tough for the Pirates to get to him today, considering they rank third last in the Majors in both batting average (.219) and OPS (.654) against righties. They haven't gotten any better offensively in July either, coming in at 28th in overall OPS this month.

Zach Thompson (4.64 ERA) gets the start for the Pirates, and he's coming off an abysmal performance against the Marlins where he allowed seven earned runs. Even if he survives his start, they'll have to turn to their 28th ranked bullpen.

It's a disaster of a season for Pittsburgh. Feel comfortable taking the Phillies on the run line tonight.

Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+100) -- Iain MacMillan

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Run Line: Dodgers -2.5 (-105) | Rockies +2.5 (-135)
  • Moneyline: Dodgers -200 | Rockies +180
  • Total: 12 (Over -110/Under -110)

Tyler Anderson has been lights out for L.A. this season and has been a stellar addition to that rotation. His 10-1 record is no fluke and his first start out of the break, against San Francisco, was quality once again. Six innings, no earned runs, and a 5-1 win. Though there could be some small reasons for concern against Colorado. 

His first start of the season took place at Coors Field, and Anderson was fine, but only pitched four innings and gave up one run. Though last time he pitched in Colorado, on June 27, was a different story. He allowed four runs on ten hits across six innings. It was one of his worst starts all year, and may have something to do with the Rockies effectiveness against lefties. 

Colorado has a nearly .800 OPS against left-handed pitching, which is number two in the Majors behind the New York Yankees. If there is any team to fade Anderson against, it might be the Rockies, because they hit lefties well and are facing him for the third time this season. 

José Ureña is on the mound for Colorado, and despite some alarming indicators and a tough start last time out, has been good for Colorado. With the run line at 2.5 for this game, the Rockies seem to be worth the bet. I just don’t see as big of a mismatch as Vegas does in this one. 

Pick: Rockies +2.5 (-135) -- Josh Yourish

Follow all Josh’s bets HERE

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