Betsided

Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Best Bets for Winner-Take-All NL Wild Card Matchup)

By Ben Heisler

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove (44) reacts following his last start of the regular season.
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove (44) reacts following his last start of the regular season. / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
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Game 3 of the National League wild card round has featured big name pitchers, but the offenses have taken over; trading blows in each game of the best-of-three series.

Tonight, it's win-or-go-home between the San Diego Padres and New York Mets, as Joe Musgrove and Chris Bassitt face off in Game 3.

Over at BetSided, we've already shared multiple betting plays for tonight's action, but we've taken our favorite picks in each of the following categories and put them all in one spot below:

  • Best Bet
  • Best Prop Bet
  • Best NRFI / YRFI Bet
  • Anytime HR Picks

Here are our team's favorite plays ahead of tonight's Game 3 from Citi Field.

Padres vs. Mets Odds, Prediction and Pick for NL Wild Card Game 3

PICK: Padres (+112) F5 ML

Chris Bassitt didn’t end the season as strong as they would have liked for the Mets, posting two rough outings against the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves with two solid performances sandwiched in between those games.

Ultimately, I think Joe Musgrove gives the Padres a slight advantage on the mound tonight. He was one of the best pitchers ERA-wise all season long, and has a 0.41 ERA in his last four outings. 

The Padres bullpen doomed them on Saturday, so rather than back them for the full game, I’ll take San Diego on the moneyline in the first five innings with Musgrove on the bump. - Peter Dewey

Padres vs. Mets Best Prop Bet for NL Wild Card Game 3

PICK: Joe Musgrove OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-112)

Joe Musgrove has been on fire in the strikeout department lately, and I have no interest fading him in that area today. 

He's gotten to at least five strikeouts in five of his last seven starts, and his rate of 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings in September/October is the best strikeout rate for him of any month this year. 

If the Padres want to win today, they'll need to keep Musgrove in the game as long as possible to avoid their shaky bullpen. The longer he's pitching, the better chance he has of hitting the over on this number. – Iain MacMillan

Padres vs. Mets Best NRFI / YRFI Bet for NL Wild Card Game 3

PICK: NRFI (-130)

I think we see the YRFI trend in the first two games of the series get stopped in the winner-take-all match this evening.

Here's how Bassitt has fared at home in the first inning, along with Musgrove on the road.

  • Joe Musgrove: 14 games, 1.29 ERA, 10 H, 2 ER, .196 BA, .219 wOBA
  • Chris Bassitt: 16 games, 1.69 ERA, 9 H, 3 ER, .167 BA, .207 wOBA

Both Bassitt and Musgrove have been excellent in the first inning this year, and with the game taking place at Citi Field, it becomes even more advantageous for both these pitchers with Bassitt at home, and Musgrove's splits in the first being better on the road. - Ben Heisler

Padres vs. Mets Anytime Home Run Picks for NL Wild Card Game 3

For more insights on our home run picks tonight, as well as the latest up-to-date-odds check out today's "Daily Dinger."

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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