Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Expect Runs in Colorado, Trust Michael Wacha, White Sox on Labor Day)
What better way to celebrate Labor Day than by cashing a few bets in Major League Baseball?
With several games starting this afternoon, the BetSided team of Peter Dewey, Josh Yourish and Iain MacMillan has you covered with previews for each contest on Monday.
We also have a few of our top plays to share with you, with odds from FanDuel Sportsbook:
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Rays Odds, Prediction and Pick
- Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (+164) | Rays +1.5 (-200)
- Moneyline: Red Sox: -104 | Rays: -112
- Total: 7.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Even though Michael Wacha’s advanced numbers suggest that he’s due to take a step back, the Red Sox have won four straight starts by the veteran righty and he’s compiled a 2.19 ERA since the start of August.
Even though Boston’s pitching has been rough this season, the team’s bats are coming alive, ranking sixth in runs scored and fourth in OPS over the last 30 days.
That could spell trouble for a youngster like Luis Patino, who is making just his fifth start of the 2022 season. Patino has a FIP of 5.53 this season, and he’s allowed 22 hits and walks in just 13.2 innings of work.
Tampa may be the better team in 2022, but I have to back Wacha and the Sox in this matchup. Hopefully the regression monster holds off for one more start.
Lean: Red Sox ML (-104) -- Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Odds, Prediction and Pick
- Run line: White Sox -1.5 (+145) | Mariners +1.5 (-170)
- Moneyline: White Sox -120 | Mariners +100
- Total: 7.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Despite going on a run over the past few weeks, the Mariners offense isn't as hot as you might think. Dating back to Aug. 1, they have an OPS of .700 which ranks 16th in the Majors. Compare that to the White Sox, who rank seventh in that state during the same time frame at .738.
Where the Mariners do have the advantage, is with their pitching. Marco Gonzales (3.99 ERA) gets the start for Seattle tonight, and he'll face-off against Lance Lynn (4.70 ERA) of the White Sox.
Despite not having an impressive ERA, Lynn has had three straight starts where he's only allowed one run.
Also, don't be surprised if Chicago can get to Gonzales tonight. The White Sox OPS this season goes from .687 against right-handed pitchers, to .776 against left-handed pitchers, which is the 6th best mark in the Majors.
I'll trust Chicago's offense to do enough to get the job done tonight.
PICK: White Sox -118 -- Iain MacMillan
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Odds, Prediction and Pick
- Run Line: Brewers -1.5 (+105) | Rockies +1.5 (-126)
- Moneyline: Brewers: -134 | Rockies: +114
- Total: 11.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Adrian Houser and Ryan Feltner at Coors Field? There's going to be fireworks today. Houser has a 5.02 ERA, an expected ERA of 4.82, a .424 slugging which is bottom 20% of the league and a bottom 20% strikeout rate, whiff rate and expected batting average.
He gets hit hard 41.2% of the time and gives up fly balls nearly 20% of the time, just under the league average. That is not the recipe for success in the thin Colorado air.
Ryan Feltner’s numbers are just so much worse than Houser’s he allows fly balls 26.7% of the time his hard hit rate is in the 8th percentile in the league, 44.8%. His expected slugging is .503, that is bottom 2% in baseball. His xERA, xBA, and chase rate are all in the bottom five percent of the league.
He is a disaster in almost every way and the Rockies just need him to eat innings for them to get to the finish line. They are 3-11 in his starts and I can’t imagine that really turning around today.
I don’t trust either pitcher so let’s go over even with the high total because it’s Coors Field. Plus I like Milwaukee to win today and the odds are not too heavy in their favor even with Feltner’s struggles.
Pick: Over 11.5 (-106) and Brewers -134 -- Josh Yourish
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE