Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Expect Runs Early in Guardians-Yankees ALDS Game 5)

Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Aaron Civale.
Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Aaron Civale. / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Everything is on the line in the ALDS on Monday, as the New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians with a chance to advance to the ALCS against the Houston Astros.

New York staved off elimination on Sunday night with a 4-2 victory, but does it have enough left in the tank to win in front of a home crowd on Monday night?

Let's dive into some of the top picks from the BetSided team for Game 5:

Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Odds, Prediction and Pick

The Yankees paid Gerrit Cole a ton of money to be their ace, and he delivered in this series, throwing 13.1 innings and allowing just three runs in both of New York’s wins. 

Cole’s performance in Game 4 has to have energized this Yankees squad, and New York has jumped on the Guardians early in two of the last three games. With Aaron Civale on the mound, I think there is value on New York getting off to a hot start. 

Civale had an ERA over five in the first inning this season, so it’s a bit of a risk for Cleveland to even pitch him in this spot. However, with rain pushing back Game 2, the Guardians always knew that a Game 5 would likely come down to the bullpen

Yes, Jameson Taillon didn’t look good in relief in Game 2, but he’s also never been in that role in his career. This should be a much more familiar position for him, and he did throw five innings of one-run ball in his lone start against the Guardians in 2022. 

The bullpen is obviously an issue for New York, but the Yankees have a better offense and more firepower to get this done at home. -- Peter Dewey

Cleveland Guardians-New York Yankees YRFI

Yep, it’s a YRFI that we’ll be placing tonight for the Guardians and Yankees. Aaron Civale is on the mound for Cleveland and Jameson Taillon starts for New York in the final game of the series. 

Civale has yet to pitch in the postseason and hasn’t taken the mound since Oct. 5. That game was the Guardians' fourth straight win in a game with Civale pitching, earning the win in three of those four matchups.

He finished the regular season with a 4.92 ERA, but had a 3.87 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) which indicates he pitched better than he ERA would suggest. The issue for Civale is the first inning, pitching to a 5.40 ERA in the first inning this year. He will be more of an opener in this game, but I’m not sure how suited he is to that role. 

Jameson Taillon has had a new role in the postseason, coming out of the bullpen for the first time in his career. Tonight, he returns to start Game 5 after giving up two runs and recording no outs in Game 2. 

This could be another low-scoring game, but I think I’ll back the offenses to strike first, before these two teams turn the game over to their bullpens. -- Josh Yourish

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Anthony Rizzo OVER 0.5 Walks

Anthony Rizzo has already drawn three walks in this series for the Yankees, and the veteran first baseman has a knack for working counts. 

Civale walked just 22 batters in 97.0 innings this season (2.0 walks per nine), but this is also his first postseason start. That, and the fact that the Guardians will have to use several pitchers, gives me confidence that Rizzo has another chance to get on via the free pass. 

At +200, it’s worth taking a shot on one of the Yankees’ more disciplined bats. -- Peter Dewey

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.