Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Marlins and Mets Upset, Back This Yankees-Rays Prop on Wednesday)
There are several fantastic pitching matchups in Major League Baseball on Wednesday, June 15, and the BetSided editors are targeting three of them in their best bets for today.
Let's jump into the picks, with all odds via WynnBET Sportsbook:
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Prediction and Pick
Both of these teams have been great when these two starters are on the mound.
The Rays have gone 9-3 in Shane McClanahan’s 12 starts, and the Yankees are 8-3 in Nestor Cortes’ 11 starts so far this season.
Cortes comes off his worst outing of the season against the Twins, allowing four runs in 4.1 innings. However, he pitched eight innings of one-run ball against the Rays earlier this season. McClanahan had a similar performance against the Yanks, throwing six innings of one-run ball in a win.
As much as I love McClanahan’s profile this season (94th percentile in expected ERA, 97th percentile in strikeout percentage, 96 percentile in whiff percentage), I can’t back the Rays in the full game.
Tampa Bay’s offense has been suspect as of late, ranking 25th in OPS over the last 15 days.
Instead of taking this full game, I’ll trust both starters and take the first five innings UNDER.
Lean: First Five Innings UNDER 3.5 (-115) -- Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets Prediction and Pick
It's dire times in Milwaukee, the team is 29th in wRC+ since the calendar flipped to June, only the Detroit Tigers are generating fewer run scoring chances. Nothing is working for the offense and it may be in for a long night once again facing a lefty in Peterson. The Brewers are hitting .216 against southpaws this season, also second worst in the big leagues.
As for the Brewers pitching staff, the team will hope Burnes can stop the bleeding. He is still in the mix for Cy Young, but he is far from his 2021 self with his underlying metrics hinting that some regression is coming. While he has a 2.48 ERA and leads Major League Baseball in strikeouts, his FIP is north of 3.00 and he is walking more betters per nine innings.
He'll be facing a scorching hot Mets team that is getting runs from everywhere, both from the long ball and from generating run scoring chances. The team is second in wRC+ this season and can put pressure on Burnes early and often.
I lean towards the under, but can't back the Brewers as road favorites against the best team in the National League.
LEAN: UNDER 7.5, Mets ML (+120) -- Reed Wallach
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Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Pick
On most days I would be siding with the Phillies here. The way their offense has been producing it’s hard for most pitchers to keep them quiet for more than a few innings. But, Pablo Lopez is not like most pitchers.
The Marlins' right hander has been getting better every year of his career and boasts a 2.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 70 ⅓ innings. I will admit that he’s been a bit shaky so far in June with a 4.76 ERA in 11 ⅓ innings. But, he still has my trust after a strong track record in his first 10 games of the season. In 63 career at-bats, Lopez has held the Phillies to a .192 batting average with 10 strikeouts and four walks.
Lopez will go head to head against Kyle Gibson in what I don’t expect to be much of a pitcher’s duel. Gibson enters this series finale with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 63 ⅓ innings. Not terrible numbers at first glance. But dig deeper and the issues with Gibson emerge.
While he was fantastic in April with a 2.93 ERA, Gibson lost his mojo in May with a 4.78. Now, two starts deep into June, and his ERA is up to 7.71. He’s given up at least two runs in five straight starts and more than three in his last two. Gibson is also struggling against the current Marlins roster with a batting average of .321 and an OPS of 1.223. In 77 at-bats, Gibson allowed 20 hits, six of which left the ballpark.
Philly’s bats might pull them out of whatever hold Gibson digs them, but I’m willing to bet Lopez does enough to eke out an underdog win.
Pick: Marlins +115 ML -- Matt De Saro
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