Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Mets Win Big, Fade Jose Berrios, Total to Bet in NL Central Showdown)

Major League Baseball is back with a full 15-game slate after just four games were played on Monday.

That means we have plenty of games to pick and choose from with our bets, so let's jump into the top picks from the BetSided team on Tuesday:

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Odds, Prediction and Pick

It's been an up and down season for Carlos Carrasco, but he is far better at home than on the road. The veteran pitches to a 3.21 ERA at Citi Field, down from 4.57 away from his home ballpark this season, and I fancy his chances of tearing through a Marlins lineup that is bottom five in nearly all hitting metrics this season.

Meanwhile, the Fish send out Pablo López, who has been a mess in the second half of the season, going from an ERA of 2.86 to 5.57 since the All-Star break. With the way the Mets lineup is hitting of late, third in wRC+ this month, they should have little issue keeping pace in the NL East.

Keep an eye on Pete Alonso, who continues to set the Mets all-time RBI record last weekend and took home National League co-Player of the Week with Albert Pujols.

The Mets are peaking at the right time, and should have little issue taking care of the Marlins.

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Odds, Prediction and Pick

There is just no way that I can trust Jose Berrios to lead the Jays to a win, even though his record is actually pretty solid for a pitcher that has a 5.27 ERA. 

Berrios allowed six runs in just two innings of work in his last outing against the Tampa Bay Rays, and he has a 6.02 ERA over nine starts since the beginning of August. Yes, the Jays are 6-3 in those games, but it’s mainly because they have the best offense in baseball over the last month. 

Things aren't going to come as easily against Jameson Taillon and the Yankees, and Taillon has pitched well against the Jays this season. In five starts, he has a 2.67 ERA against Toronto, allowing just eight runs across 27.0 innings of work. 

Meanwhile, Berrios has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 17 innings against New York in 2022. Give me the Yankees in this one. 

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds, Prediction and Pick

Despite their season-long stats, these pitchers enter this matchup with much different luck going for them. 

The Cards have lost three straight starts by Miles Mikolas, despite him posting just a 3.71 ERA in those outings, while the Brewers have been winners in four straight starts by Adrian Houser. 

The Brewers righty faced this Cardinals team in late May, and he gave up eight runs (five earned) in just four innings of work. Even though that was a while back, I have a hard time trusting Houser given his ERA and FIP being over four on the season. 

Over Mikolas’ last 10 starts, he has a 4.43 ERA, so I think the OVER here is the play, especially with how talented the Cardinals offense is.