Betsided

Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Orioles, Cubs Have Value as Dogs, One Total to Bet on Wednesday)

By Peter Dewey, Joe Summers, Reed Wallach

The Baltimore Orioles have been elite at home this season.
The Baltimore Orioles have been elite at home this season. / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
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The dogs are barking on Wednesday in Major League Baseball!

The BetSided team of Peter Dewey, Reed Wallach and Joe Summers is here to deliver some of the top picks to make in MLB on Wednesday, and the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs could have some serious value as moneyline dogs.

Let's jump into today's picks, with odds from WynnBET and consensus sportsbooks:

Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Run Line: White Sox: -1.5 (+130) | Orioles: +1.5 (-160)
  • Moneyline: White Sox: -115 | Orioles: +105
  • Total: 8.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

I don’t love the White Sox as road favorites here, especially given how bad Lucas Giolito has been in the month of August. In four August starts, Giolito has a 6.30 ERA, and he has a 6.32 ERA dating back to the start of June. 

Simply put, he’s been bad for a while now. 

Spenser Watkins isn’t an ace for Baltimore, but he has a 2.81 ERA since returning to the team’s rotation back on June 25. The Orioles are also an elite home team, going 36-23 straight up and an astounding 33-9 ATS as home underdogs this season. 

Taking the O’s at -160 on the run line would be fine, but I’m taking it a step further for them to win this game. 

Lean: Orioles ML (+105) -- Peter Dewey

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

Washington Nationals vs. Seattle Mariners Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Run Line: Nationals: +1.5 (+130) | Mariners: -1.5 (-150)
  • Moneyline: Nationals: +290 | Mariners: -350
  • Total: 7.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

While the Nationals are arguably the worst team in baseball, they actually are decent at hitting, posting the 10th best batting average in baseball in the month of August at .253. Can they scrape together enough offense to help get over this low total?

I think so, especially considering the Mariners are an elite offense -- ninth in wRC+ in August. This is a team that is adept at getting on base and should challenge the veteran Anibal Sanchez from the first pitch. Sanchez missed the start of the season due to a neck injury and has a 6.43 ERA, but somehow his FIP is even higher, sitting at 7.17. He has actually gotten off easy with help in the field.

With Sanchez on the mound, I have to go over a total below eight runs and hope the Nationals can put enough balls in play to help hold up their end of the bargain.

LEAN: OVER 7.5 Runs (-110) -- Reed Wallach

You can find all of Reed's plays on Betstamp HERE!

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Run Line: Cardinals -1.5 (+130) | Cubs +1.5 (+110)
  • Moneyline: Cardinals: -205 | Cubs: +185
  • Total: 8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Chicago's goal here should be to make it through the first inning without a deficit. Luke Farrell is a disaster, and St. Louis can do serious damage in what will likely be the only inning he throws. Take his last appearance, for example, when Ferrell surrendered four runs to the Royals while walking three batters. Or when he gave up five runs to the Blue Jays in his first start of the season.

Simply put, Farrell cannot be trusted. The rest of Chicago's bullpen is pitching fairly well, so if the Cubs can survive the first inning unscathed, they'll be in good position to stay competitive the rest of the game.

The reason being that Miles Mikolas is not nearly as good as his box score statistics indicate of late. In fact, his road starts have been rather awful. Here is his expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) from his last seven starts away from home:

  • 8/19 @ ARI: 4.70
  • 8/09 @ COL: 3.27
  • 7/29 @ WSN: 4.29
  • 7/24 @ CIN: 5.06
  • 7/06 @ ATL: 3.99
  • 7/01 @ PHI: 5.52
  • 6/20 @ MIL: 5.44

He's consistently terrible, and the Cardinals are just 2-6 in his last eight road outings. Chicago hits right-handed pitchers well, ranking 10th in OPS this month, and I think the Cubs can take advantage of Mikolas' road woes.

Thus, I see value in backing Chicago at huge odds. I'll look to fade Mikolas every time he's pitching on the road, and today is no different. As long as we survive the first inning, we're in great shape to pull off an upset win.

PICK: Cubs (+185) -- Joe Summers

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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