Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Trust Dylan Cease, Field of Dreams Game Bet and More on Thursday)
We have a rather short slate in Major League Baseball today, but it all culminates with the Field of Dreams Game on Thursday night between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds.
The BetSided team of Iain MacMillan, Peter Dewey and Josh Yourish has you covered with picks for several games, including how to play the Field of Dreams matchup.
Let's jump into today's picks:
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Field of Dreams Game Odds, Prediction and Pick
- Run line: Cubs +1.5 (-210) | Reds -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Cubs +100 | Reds -110
- Total: 9.0 (Over -105/Under -115)
The time to bet on the Cubs is NOT when they're facing a left-handed starter. Their OPS since July 1st goes from .687 against righties, to .594 against lefties. That mark is the third lowest in the Majors during that span.
Tonight, they face left-handed starter Nick Lodolo. He'll face-off against fellow lefty, Drew Smyly, who has already faced the Reds this season. He gave up three earned runs in 5.2 innings back on May 23.
I think the Reds are the bet to make in this one, but it's probably best to stick to a first five innings bet.
Believe it or not, the Cubs rank first in the Majors in bullpen ERA dating back to July 1. During the same time span, the Reds rank 20.
I'll back the Reds in the first five innings to hopefully avoid that issue, but that also could set up a good live betting opportunity of the Cubs are losing heading into the final innings.
Pick: Reds F5 -120 -- Iain MacMillan
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals Odds, Prediction and Pick
- Run Line: White Sox: -1.5 (-110) | Royals: +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: White Sox: -190 | Royals: +160
- Total: 8 (Over -125/Under +105)
Dylan Cease has been the best pitcher in baseball over his last 13 starts, and the White Sox are 11-2 in those games and have won seven of those games by two or more runs.
Zack Greinke has been better since returning from the injured list, posting a 3.98 ERA in eight starts, with the Royals going 5-3 in those games. However, I can’t bet on Grienke in this spot with how dominant Cease has been.
The Royals are 23rd in MLB in OPS this season, which is going to be even worse with Cease on the bump. The White Sox should roll in this game, even with Tim Anderson out of the lineup.
Lean: White Sox -1.5 (-110) -- Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Odds, Prediction and Pick
- Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-140) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+115)
- Moneyline: Pirates +160 | Diamondbacks -175
- Total: 8.0 (Over -105 / Under -115)
Merrill Kelly starts for Arizona tonight and the 33-year-old has an interesting career arc that has brought him to be one of the better pitchers in all of the National League. Kelly didn’t break into the league until he was 30, back in 2019 and now in his fourth year, he has a 10-5 record and 2.86 ERA. That ranks him seventh in the NL in both ERA and wins. Kelly is also barely outside the top 10 in wins above replacement for NL pitchers at 3.2.
Kelly is also top 10 in the NL in innings pitched and adjusted ERA+. He is a legitimate top of the rotation ace who is having his breakout year at 33. He has made seven starts since July 1, all seven have been quality starts and he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of those outings.
Kelly will continue to pitch lights out, he is the best pitcher in this rotation and the Diamondbacks were an even bigger favorite with Zac Gallen on the mound.
Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+115) -- Josh Yourish
Follow all Josh’s bets HERE