Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Two OVERs, Tigers Upset Among Best Bets for Thursday)
By Peter Dewey
There's no NBA playoff action on Thursday, so that's all the more reason to dive into the 10 games going on in Major League Baseball on Cinco de Mayo.
BetSided's Ben Heisler, Reed Wallach and Peter Dewey have you covered with their top picks for the action on Thursday, May 5, with all odds via WynnBET:
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Prediction and Pick
The Marlins are getting a ton of respect in the market with Luzardo on the mound. The former top prospect is starting to find his stride with Miami after being traded from the A's last season, but this may not be the best matchup for the lefty. Luzardo's walk rate is still high, four walks per nine innings, and the Padres generate the most in baseball this season.
While Luzardo strikes out more than 12 per nine innings, the Padres ability to work counts and get on base can lead to trouble for the Marlins starter.
However, the Friars will be starting journeyman pitcher Nick Martinez, who also struggles with walks. He is walking 5.5 per nine innings and only striking out eight batters per nine. He has an ERA of 4.12 but his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) that is north of 6.50. He is a stop gap pitcher for an otherwise loaded San Diego pitching staff.
I'm not sure I agree with the Padres being home underdog, but I'd rather go with the over with two pitchers that should struggle against disciplined lineups.
LEAN: OVER 7 (-110) -- Reed Wallach
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Prediction and Pick
There may be some value on the struggling Tigers in this spot. Despite his 2-1 record, Urquidy has been downright awful this season.
When looking at some of his advanced numbers via Baseball Savant, it’s shocking that Urquidy only has a 5.95 ERA. He ranks in the fifth percentile in expected ERA, the 12th percentile in hard hit percentage and the 13th percentile in barrel percentage.
Yikes.
As for Skubal, he has been much better this season, ranking in the 69th percentile in expected ERA and the 78th percentile in opponent’s expected on-base percentage.
Neither of these pitchers walks many hitters, but Skubal has been much better at limiting hard contact so far in 2022.
The Astros offense has looked better as of late, but I’m not completely sold on them just yet. I think this is a spot where Detroit’s offense can get back on track, and I don’t hate them as a sizable underdog.
Lean: Tigers Moneyline (+150) -- Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Pick
I'm trying to determine which of these pitchers' comeback so far in 2022 is a better story, because there's a compelling argument for each.
Last year, Archer pitched just 19 innings in his return to Tampa Bay before dealing with multiple injuries. It's been nearly seven years since he was one of the best pitchers in baseball.
This year, while Archer's ERA sits at 2.93, he's been effectively wild in the process. The walk rate is the highest of his career (5.28 walks per nine innings) and his fielder independent pitching (FIP) number of 5.57 indicates he's been quite lucky relative to his actual ERA.
As for Watkins, the 29-year old right-hander had an ERA of 8.07 a season ago for the O's, giving up a whopping 2.30 home runs per nine innings. This year, he's been much better keeping the ball down (1.02 HR/9), but he's not getting many swings and misses. Watkins averages a tick over four strikeouts per nine innings, and like Archer, his FIP is nearly two full runs higher than his ERA.
Both pitchers, while good stories to begin the season, are due to regress, and I'll be on the over happening this evening as a result of it.
PICK: OVER 8 (-110) -- Ben Heisler
Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE