Top NFL Picks and Predictions Today (Cowboys, Chargers, and Josh Allen Top Today's Best Bets)

The best spread, total, and player prop bet to wager on for Sunday's NFL Week 14 action.

Nov 26, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) against the
Nov 26, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) against the / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

We have only a handful of NFL Sundays left this season, so we have to make the most of them. That's why I'm going to sit back and root for some bets in Week 14.

If you're looking for some bets to place yourself, you've come to the right place. I'm going to breakdown my favorite spread, total, and player prop for Sunday's slate right here.

If you want my overall best bet for every game today, you can find the full list in this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets".

I encourage you to place today's bets at Caesars Sportsbook. If you click the link below to sign up for an account, Caesars will cover your first bet up to $1,000!

Bet on the NFL at Caesars NOW!

Dallas Cowboys -3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

A lot of people are going to be surprised that the Eagles are once again set as underdogs, but not me. I've been harping about how fraudulent the Eagles have been the past few weeks and it finally showed up in a 42-19 demolition at the hands of the 49ers. But, the Cowboys also suffered a big loss to the 49ers, so why do I like them to win and cover in this matchup?

In my opinion, this game comes down to defense, which is the reason why the Eagles aren't as good as their record indicates, in my opinion. Philadelphia ranks 24th in opponent yards per play (5.4), 27th in opponent EPA per Play, and 20th in opponent success rate. The most damning part of their defense has been their third-down performance. They're dead last in the NFL opponent third down conversion rate, allowing teams to convert 47.27% of third downs against them.

Despite beating the Cowboys earlier in the Season, Dallas out-gained them 5.8 yards per play to 4.9 yards per play. Now, with the rematch set to take place on the Cowboys' home turf, I think they're the right side to bet in this NFC East showdown.

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers OVER 44

This is a game that I think is worth taking a shot on the OVER in. Analytically, these are two of the worst defenses in the NFL and aren't nearly good enough to warrant a total in the low 40s.

They're 28th and 31st in opponent yards per play, 26th and 30th in opponent EPA per Play, 29th and 30th in opponent success rate, and 20th and 29th in opponent points per game. Without even considering the two offenses, the defenses alone make this OVER bet worth it.

Don't be fooled by the Chargers' game last week that was a 6-0 defense. This is a completely different matchup and I expect it to result in a high-scoring affair.

Josh Allen UNDER 261.5 Passing Yards

If the Bills are smart, they'll try to keep the ball on the ground and attack the Chiefs where they're weakest. Trying to attack them through the air likely isn't the route to go considering the Chiefs are fifth in the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt (5.7) sixth in opponent passing yards per game (183.0).

As a result, taking the UNDER on Josh Allen's passing yards is likely a smart bet to make.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!