Top NHL Picks for Today (A Favorite, Underdog and Total Bet for April 6)
Just because it's Masters week, doesn't mean I'm completely ignoring the NHL.
Sure, I didn't have any picks the last few days, but I'm back on the ice tonight for three bets that I absolutely love. Let's dive into them, and hopefully build our bankroll before the action tees off at Augusta National tomorrow.
All odds listed are via WynnBET Sportsbook.
Lightning vs. Capitals Prediction and Pick
I'm not going to start calling the Capitals frauds, but I certainly think they're one of the weakest playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. Over their last 25 games, Washington ranks 22nd or worse in two key advanced metrics, CORSI% and expected goals for per 60 minutes. They're also 28th in high danger scoring chances in that stretch.
Those aren't the numbers of a Stanley Cup contender or a team who is going to match up well with the back-to-back champs. To make matters worse, they're not getting any help from their goaltenders either, ranking 20th in save percentage.
Getting the Lightning at -140 tonight is a gift we shouldn't pass up.
Pick: Lightning -140
Red Wings vs. Jets Prediction and Pick
The Jets have no business being -280 favorites against any team in the NHL. They're barely above .500, and their record against the Eastern Conference shows that the success they have had this season has been against much weaker Western Conference opponents.
The two teams rank 24th and 25th in CORSI percentage over their last 25 games, and the Red Wings rank above them in expected goals against per 60 minutes and high danger scoring chances allowed. Being on home ice certainly gives Winnipeg an advantage, but this matchup is wildly mis-priced.
If you've ever wanted to bet on a massive underdog in an NHL game, tonight's the best chance you're going to get to cash one.
Pick: Red Wings +240
Flames vs. Ducks Prediction and Picks
With the Flames (rightfully) set as massive favorites, I'm going to look at the total in tonight's game instead. The Ducks aren't good at much, but they're serviceable on defense. They rank 17th in expected goals against per 60 minutes, and 20th in high danger scoring chances against. Those numbers certainly aren't great, but they're better compared to the 28th and 26th ranking they have in the offensive version of those categories over their last 25 games.
Meanwhile, the Flames continue to be one of the best defensive teams in the league, ranking in the top five in every single major defensive statistic.
With the total set at six, I'm going to back the UNDER tonight.
Pick: UNDER 6 (-115)
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.