Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets Today (Avalanche will Trounce Sabres)
Praise Gamblor! It's been a rough NHL season for my picks, there's no hiding from it, but we managed to pull off the 3-0 sweep last night after finally getting some overtime luck.
We've now been profitable in four of the last five editions of Top Shelf Picks so let's try to keep things moving in the right direction. There are just three games set to take place on Wednesday night so I have a bet locked in on each of them.
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NHL Best Bets Today
- Sabres +160 vs. Maple Leafs
- Avalanche -1.5 (+115) vs. Red Wings
- Senators vs. Ducks OVER 6.5 (-125)
Sabres vs. Maple Leafs Prediction and Pick
I'm not going to make the argument the Buffalo Sabres are the better team in this game, but I don't think they should be as big of underdogs as they are at their current price point. Buffalo comes into tonight's game in Toronto ranking seventh in 5-on-5 CORSI% over its last 25 games.
The Sabres have also been getting fantastic goaltending from Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen since the start of the new year. In 2024, he has a 12-8 record while rocking an impressive .932 save percentage. If he gets the start tonight, the Maple Leafs are going to have a major goalie disadvantage with Ilya Samsonov in net.
I'll take a shot on the Sabres to pull off the upset tonight.
Red Wings vs. Avalanche Prediction and Pick
If you've been reading recent editions of Top Shelf Picks, you know that I have been fading the Detroit Red Wings as much as possible lately. Despite having a 16-7-2 record in their last 25 games, they rank 26th in CORSI% and 30th in expected goal percentage. Wins simply aren't sustainable while ranking so poorly in those metrics and now they hit the road to take on one of the Stanley Cup favorites in the Colorado Avalanche.
I think the Avs are going to run away with this one tonight as Detroit finally begins to regress.
Senators vs. Ducks Prediction and Pick
The Ottawa Senators have allowed an average of 3.07 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play over their last 25 games, which is the second worst mark in the NHL. The Ducks haven't been too much better in that area, allowing 2.61.
Meanwhile, when it comes to total goals against during all strengths of play, the Ducks are 31st in the league allowing 3.69 goals per 60 minutes and the Senators are 27th allowing 3.56.
The bottom line is these are two of the worst defensive teams in the NHL so don't be surprised if we see a plethora of goals tonight. This game might be all offense, no defense. I'll bet the OVER.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!