Top WNBA Picks and Predictions Today (Seattle Will Storm Out to Early Lead)

We’re off to a 2-0 start in the WNBA Playoffs, despite a rather shocking upset in the early game Tuesday night.

The New York Liberty held the Chicago Sky scoreless in the final 3:30 of their Game 1 matchup in Chicago en route to a 98-91 stunner as 9.5-point underdogs. If the Sky hope to repeat as WNBA Champs, they’ll need to win two in a row in their best-of-three series; including a possible winner-take-all game in Brooklyn in Game 3.

Meanwhile, after the Phoenix Mercury held the top offense in the league to just 51 points through the first 33 minutes of their Game 1 matchup, the Aces finally broke through; outscoring Phoenix 28-17 in the fourth quarter; winning 79-63 and somehow covering the 15.5-point spread.

Tonight, the 3-6 and 4-5 matchups in the postseason tip-off, as the 3-seeded Connecticut Sun welcome the 6-seed Dallas Wings to town without the presence of star guard Arike Ogunbowale as she recovers from a cole muscle injury.

Later on in Seattle, Sue Bird looks for one final ring to add to her Hall of Fame career when the No. 4 seed Seattle storm host the No. 5 Washington Mystics.

Even with the first two games in the books, be sure to check out our WNBA Playoffs betting guide, as well as our final Power Rankings based on each team’s odds to win the championship.

You can also check out our playoff preview on Tuesday’s episode of “Daily Betslip!"

Best WNBA Prop Bets Record to Date

• WNBA Best Bets Record: 86-75-3

WNBA Odds, Spread and Totals for Every Game (Thursday, August 18)

Dallas Wings vs. Connecticut Sun

• Spread: Wings +9.5 (-110) | Sun -9.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Wings +400  | Sun -550
• Total: 163 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm

• Spread: Mystics +3.5 (-110) | Storm -3.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Mystics +150 | Storm -180
• Total: 159 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

All odds listed above are via WynnBET.

Best WNBA Picks For Thursday, August 17

• Wings vs. Sun 1H OVER 81.5 (-110)
• Storm 1Q -1 (-110)

Wings vs. Sun Best Bets

So far, the underdogs have been the story in the first round, and if Ogunbowale was playing, I'd be intrigued to back another one in Dallas on the road. No team has been better covering the number away from home than the Wings; going 12-5-1 ATS in 2022.

However, I think I need to see this matchup play out before I consider a side, so I'll look to a specific first half total instead.

In the second half of the season, the Wings ranked second in first half offensive rating while the Sun were just a tick below in third. Without Ogunbowale, Dallas actually took over as the top WNBA offensive efficiency team in the league during that four-game stretch. Those numbers may be skewed slightly by their 116-88 win over the disinterested L.A. Sparks, but their offense showed they can hang with most of the top teams in the league.

Connecticut also picks up its offensive game more-so at home, and is a little more willing to push pace. Ultimately, I anticipate a more up-tempo, back-and-forth first half, before the top net-rated team in the WNBA settles down and begins to lock in defensively at home against a short-handed Dallas team.

PICK: 1H OVER 81.5 (-110)

Mystics vs. Storm Best Bets

Both teams finished the regular season with nearly identical net ratings. Washington ended up as the top rated defensive team in the league while Seattle finished top three. On offense, however, the Storm really ramped up down the stretch; finishing with the top offensive rating in the league over the month of August.

Delle Donne's presence helps Washington immensely, and the postseason presents an entirely different challenge and perspective, but two of the Mystics' seven losses with Delle Donne in the lineup came against Seattle. I'd lean on the Storm to cover the 3.5, but I have concerns with their ability to separate with Washington's top-rated defense.

Instead, I'll bet on the Storm to cover a single point in the first quarter, where they've been elite all season, but especially of late.

Since August, Seattle has by far and away the best offensive rating in the first quarter of any WNBA team (135.2), but also the third-best defensive rating (97.1); trailing only the Chicago Sky and Connecticut Sun by just over a point. For as good as Washington is defensively, its defensive rating in the first quarter over the last two weeks has been far below average; ranking seventh out of 12 teams.

The Storm will look to dictate pace early on in their home building and get the crowd going. With Washington's recent early quarter struggles, covering by a single point feels like terrific value.

PICK: Storm 1Q -1 (-110)

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