Top WNBA Picks and Predictions Today (Sky Soar Early vs. Liberty, Points at Premium for Mercury at Aces)
By Ben Heisler
The WNBA Postseason begins this evening as the top two seeds tip-off the playoffs from their home arena for the first of their three-game series.
The No. 2 seed Chicago Sky look to become the first back-to-back WNBA Champion in 20 years since the L.A. Sparks repeated in 2001-2002 as they face the No. 7 New York Liberty at 8 p.m. ET. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Aces open the postseason as the No. 1 overall seed in Becky Hammon’s first season as head coach against the short-handed 8-seeded Phoenix Mercury at 10 p.m. ET.
Before diving into the matchups, we put together a comprehensive WNBA Playoffs betting guide, as well as our final Power Rankings based on each team’s odds to win the championship.
You can also check out our breakdown on Tuesday’s episode of “Daily Betslip” below!
Best WNBA Prop Bets Record to Date
- WNBA Best Bets Record: 84-75-3
WNBA Odds, Spread and Totals for Every Game (Wednesday, August 17)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky
Spread: Liberty +9.5 (-110) | Sky -9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Liberty +325 | Sky -425
Total: 166 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
Spread: Mercury +16 (-110) | Aces -16 (-110)
Moneyline: Mercury +950 | Aces -1800
Total: 167.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)
All odds listed above are via WynnBET.
Best WNBA Picks For Wednesday, August 17
- Sky 1Q -2 (-110) - now up to -3 (-110)
- PHI @ LVA UNDER 167.5 (-110)
Liberty vs. Sky Best Bets
As I mentioned in my final power rankings, I have Chicago as the top team heading into the postseason despite the Las Vegas Aces' owning the No. 1 seed as well as the shortest odds to win the Finals.
However, the Sky absolutely should take the Liberty seriously. Over the final two weeks of the season, New York finished with the second-best defensive rating in the league.
While they only went 1-3 against Chicago during the regular season, the Liberty did go 2-1-1 against the spread; keeping a few games closer than anticipated.
That's why I'm backing Chicago early in the first quarter. The Sky were terrific starters throughout the entire season, finishing with a +14.6 net rating, as well as the No. 2 offensive and defensive rating in the first 10 minutes. Meanwhile, the Liberty were awful all year long in the early going, ranking second-to-last in offensive rating and 10th in net rating.
Two points is a breeze for Chicago to cover in the early going, especially if Ionescu and company typically wait to heat up from the second quarter on. I’ll take this number up to 3.
PICK: Sky 1Q -2 (-110)
Mercury vs. Aces Best Bets
The Aces are deserving of their massive point spread, but 16 points is a lot to cover in a postseason game. Therefore, I'll focus on backing the under instead.
Losing both Diggins-Smith as well as Taurasi is devastating for Phoenix against the most explosive offense in the WNBA. The two of them accounted for 44.8% of the team's points per game this season, and that includes the 16 games that Tina Charles (now on Seattle) was on the team.
To their credit, they still found a way to go 2-2 down the stretch, playing some of their best defense of the year. They held the New York Liberty to only 62 points back on August 6, as well as limiting the Dallas Wings to just 74 points in both wins, while Diamond DeShields and Sophie Cunningham both stepped up in Diggins-Smith and Taurasi's absence; leading the way in scoring.
They'll need that improved defense to try to somewhat contain Las Vegas, who finished the season with the top offensive rating in the league. The Aces also finished 4-0 down the stretch of the season to snatch away the top seed from the Chicago Sky, and had a net rating in those games of +10.1; second-best in the WNBA behind only the Connecticut Sun.
Even if Las Vegas is firing on all cylinders in their matchup, a blowout is likely to play into the favor of the under, as Phoenix will have all sorts of issues scoring regardless of who's on the floor.
PICK: UNDER 167.5 (-110)
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