Travelers Championship Nationality Prop Best Bets (Back Conners & Fleetwood)
We are one day out from the start of the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut. This tournament marks the final signature event of the year, meaning the best golfers on tour (minus Rory McIlroy) will be in attendance again this weekend.
This will be the third week in a row all of these guys will have to play, so we may see some fatigue come into play after the grind of battling it out at two of the most challenging courses in North America, Muirfield Country Club and Pinehurst No.2.
Outside of fatigue, players will enjoy TPC River Highlands much more than the challenge of the previous two courses they have played. River Highlands is a much more rewarding course than Muirfield or Pinehurst for players who are striking it well, which should create a much more predictable event.
The only issue with this event is that there are only 70 golfers on the field. These smaller fields in signature events reduce the number of betting opportunities. However, I have been on fire picking Nationality Props, having made 8.45u of profit in the last six weeks in this market. This week, I have identified two golfers who have a great chance to win their group; let's see if I can keep the hot streak going.
Top Canadian Finisher - Corey Conners (+200)
I discussed Conners this week and explained why he had another excellent weekend at the Travelers Championship in the course preview and best bets article I posted yesterday. However, I will summarize those thoughts here.
Conners has been on fire recently. He has six straight top-30 finishes and five top-20 finishes in his last six starts on tour. Conners is coming into this event and ranked among the top five golfers in the field in strokes gained on approach and greens in regulation percentage over the previous three months and the last 12 months. He has also been one of the most proficient approach players from the most common approach distances that faced this weekend, ranked No.2 in the field in proximity to the hole from the fairway between 125-150 yards and No.2 in that same stat from 150-175 yards over the last three months.
Looking at the more formidable competitors in this group, Mackenzie Hughes has two top-10 finishes in his last five starts, but he has also missed the cut in three of those five, with two missed cuts in the previous two weeks. Hughes is entering the Travelers Championship ranking 65th of 70 golfers in total strokes gained over the last two weeks. Adam Svensson has been consistently average and has made ten straight cuts. Still, he has not found a top-20 finish in 13 consecutive starts since a T10 finish at the Genesis Invitational in February. Adam Hadwin did have a great weekend at the Memorial Tournament a couple of weekends ago, finding a T3 finish, but outside of that, Hadwin's highest finish in his last five events is a T52.
Conners is by far the most consistent ball striker in this group, and this course sets up perfectly for his game. I am willing to bet Conners will be the top Canadian finisher again this weekend.
Top English Finisher - Tommy Fleetwood (+100)
This is a much smaller group than the Canadian group that we just talked about. Fleetwood is the favorite and will have to outshoot Matt Fitzpatrick and Justin Rose to win the group. Fleetwood has finished in the top 30 in five straight events and seven of the last 10 he has played in. Compare that to Matt Fitzpatrick, who only has two top-20 finishes in his previous five starts, with the other three finishes being 52nd or worse, and Justin Rose, who has had one top-20 finish since February and missed the cut in two straight events.
Fleetwood is projected to finish 17th in this event due to his exceptional numbers off the tee and putting. My model has Fitzpatrick finishing 34th and Rose down in the 50s; I am just going to trust the data here and back the favorite in this small group.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.