Tyreek Hill vs. Stefon Diggs: Who Will Have the Better Game?

Bills receiver Stefon Diggs and Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill go head to head on Sunday night in the hopes of earning an AFC title game berth.
Bills receiver Stefon Diggs and Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill go head to head on Sunday night in the hopes of earning an AFC title game berth. / Jamie Germano / USA TODAY NETWORK

The game I am most looking forward to this weekend is the Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night. I love to watch both teams, both quarterbacks and I think the Bills are in a good spot for an AFC upset. Another reason I love to watch these two teams is the starting receivers that each team deploys. Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs are two of the most exciting players in the NFL and go head to head this weekend. 

While we have covered this game multiple times already from multiple angles, I have one more before kickoff. I wanted to take a look at Hill and Diggs’ player props and make a prediction as to who goes for more yards in primetime. All prop odds featured are provided by WynnBET Sportsbook

Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Total 70.5 (OVER -120/UNDER -110)

Taking the OVER feels so good when backing a player as good as Hill. On the flipside, fading players of his caliber are always a little gut-wrenching. I bring this up because this is one of those rare occasions that I plan to fade Hill in a big game. As much agita as it gives me, the Bills defense is just too good to be keen on betting anyone on the Chiefs offense in the prop market. This doesn’t mean that I expect the whole team to fail, but I do expect some surprisingly average performances. I think Hill falls into that category on Sunday night. 

First of all, Hill was pretty quiet in last week’s win over the Steelers with five catches and 57 yards. He did score a TD but that has no bearing on this yardage prop in my opinion. 

As talented as he is, if Hill doesn’t get the touches then he has nothing to work with. Hill has been seeing his usage evaporate in the second half of the season and that worries me too. He has not gone over this total in his last four games and has seen five or fewer targets in five of his last seven. 

Considering how good the Bills defense is, especially against the pass, I struggle to find the confidence to trust Hill to go over 70 yards on Sunday night. 

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Total 72.5 (OVER -120/UNDER -115)

Diggs was suspiciously uninvolved in the Bills 47-17 win over the Patriots in the Wild Card round. He saw just four targets and nabbed three for 60 yards. While that works out to a very healthy 20 yards per catch, I would like to have seen more balls thrown his way last weekend. A big reason for Diggs’ quiet night against NE was cornerback J.C. Jackson who shadowed the WR very effectively. 

The Chiefs passing defense, however, is much worse than the Patriots' team that got blown up by this offense last weekend. The Chiefs rank 23rd in opponent yards per pass and 26th in total passing yards per game at 248.6. The Chiefs love to play one-on-one coverage but don’t have the talent to shut Diggs down as Jackson did. He had 77 yards in last season’s AFC Championship loss and I am sure he will be out for a spot of revenge after that letdown.