UCF vs. Louisville Prediction, Odds and Spread for College Football Week 3

The Gus Malzahn era of UCF football could not be off to a better start.

After being let go by Auburn after eight seasons, Malzahn is off to a 2-0 start in Orlando, leading the Knights to big home wins vs. Boise State, as well as Bethune-Cookman in Week 2.

The Knights have put up 99 points in their first two games of the season and have dominated both on the ground and through the air. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has thrown for an average of 315 yards per game with three touchdowns, and running back Isaiah Bowser is racked up five touchdowns on the ground, averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

Meanwhile for Louisville, the Cardinals fell flat on their face in their standalone Week 1 loss at Ole Miss, giving up 43 points in a first half that got away from them early. They bounced back at home against Eastern Kentucky with a 30-3 victory.

Malik Cunningham leads the Cardinals in both passing and rushing touchdowns with six, as the Cardinals need to get running back Jalen Mitchell going more consistently. They have a big play threat in Ahmari Huggins-Bruce, who has six receptions for 169 yards, but still has yet to score.

Well, let's put it this way... he SHOULD have scored, but this happened instead.

That play not only cost Huggins-Bruce his first touchdown of the year, it also cost Louisville bettors as the Cardinals were favored by 30 in that game. The final score was 30-3, putting Louisville at 0-2 against the spread.

Now, UCF looks to add another statement game to their resume on the road at Papa John's Stadium, where they enter as road favorites.

Here are the odds for Friday night's AAC/ACC showdown via WynnBET Sportsbook.

Central Florida vs. Louisville Spread, Odds, and Over/Under

Spread:

UCF: -6.5 (-110)

Louisville: +6.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

UCF: -245

Louisville: +195

Total:

67.0 (OVER -110/UNDER -110)

UCF vs. Louisville Betting Trends

• Central Florida is 1-1 ATS in 2021 | Louisville is 0-2 ATS
• Central Florida is 1-0-1 in their Over/Under Record in 2021 | Louisville is 0-2 in OVERS
• Louisville is 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games at home
• UCF is 39-16 ATS in their last 55 games after allowing less than 20 points in their last game
• Since Scott Satterfield took over at Louisville in 2019, UL is 13-12-1 ATS, and 15-11 in OVERS

UCF vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick

I'm already on-board the Cardinals ship for picking up the victory as home dogs this week in our BetSided team's "Upset Alert" for Week 3. Louisville's defense, after getting annihilated by Ole Miss in the first half of Week 1, has only given up 17 points over their last six quarters. On offense, the aforementioned Huggins-Bruce has also put himself in some elite company with his start to the season.

UCF has been sensational on offense this year, currently ranked second in the country in total yards with 622 per game. Only Memphis has more. If the Cardinals are able to pull off the win, they'll need to get key stops on third down. UCF has converted 57% of their third down attempts this season.

While I would have loved to have grabbed Louisville at +7.5, I also am intrigued by the early sharp movement to move this line down from the consensus 7.5-point spread down to 6.5 in the direction of Louisville. I'll back the Cardinals at +6.5, and hope they can pull off the full moneyline upset, as well as keep our team's train rolling and improve on our 5-2 record at picking straight-up college football underdogs.

Smell an upset in Louisville tonight? What about in the rest of Week 3 in college football?

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