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UCLA vs. Oregon State Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 7

Who will stay in the PAC-12 title race?

By Reed Wallach

Oct 7, 2023; Pasadena, California, USA; UCLA Bruins quarterback Dante Moore (3) scans the line of
Oct 7, 2023; Pasadena, California, USA; UCLA Bruins quarterback Dante Moore (3) scans the line of / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
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UCLA is back on the road this week to face Oregon State in a battle of two teams fighting to stay alive for a PAC-12 title.

Both UCLA and Oregon State have responded from road conference losses but will meet on Saturday night in hopes of grabbing a signature victory. The Bruins have been paced by its vastly improved defense while the Beavers bolster one of the most potent rush attacks in the sport.

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UCLA vs. Oregon State Odds, Spread and Total

Oregon State vs. UCLA Betting Trends

  • Oregon State is 4-2 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Oregon State is 2-1 ATS this season at home
  • UCLA is 3-2 ATS this season but didn't cover in its lone game as an underdog (@ Utah)
  • UCLA has gone UNDER in four of five games this season
  • Oregon State has gone OVER in four of six

UCLA vs. Oregon State How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, October 14th
  • Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Reser Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): FOX
  • UCLA Record: 4-1
  • Oregon State Record: 5-1

UCLA vs. Oregon State Key Players to Watch

UCLA

Dante Moore: Moore has now thrown two pick-sixs against PAC-12 opponents as the Bruins overall efficiency has dipped on the offensive side of the ball. The team has stalled a ton on offense in scoring position and the true freshman Moore has shown some of his youth in those situations. To be fair to Moore, he has been somewhat unlucky, completing only 52% of his passes but has been plagued by a near-13% drop percentage and has made 14 big-time throws to only six turnover-worth plays.

Oregon State

D.J. Uiagalelei: Uiagalelei made some clutch throws in the Beavers' 52-40 win at Cal last week, but continues to not push the ball downfield all that often, averaging only eight yards per pass attempt this season. The Bruins are allowing less than two yards per carry this season, which can put a ton of pressure on the Clemson transfer to need to throw the ball to get the offense going. Will he answer the call?

Get ready for Week 7 with our early week betting breakdown, including Oregon vs. Washington

UCLA vs. Oregon State Prediction and Pick

This should be an interesting chess match for both teams as Moore has had his fair share of struggles against sturdy competition in his last two games, including a road game at Utah. He will be back on the road in a hostile environment, but I believe this Oregon State defense can give the freshman some opportunities to showcase his arm talent.

The Beavers' defense has been sturdy this season, but against a potent passing attack was gashed. The team allowed 38 points to Washington State on the road and couldn't stop Cal with a true freshman quarterback making his first start last week, allowing 40 points in the process.

Oregon State is 89th in passing success rate and is allowing more than five yards per play this season. Further, something to keep an eye on is Oregon State's poor tackling. The team is 112th in Pro Football Focus' tackling grade and will be facing one of the most talented offenses in the country with an ace playcaller in Chip Kelly. The Bruins are scoring touchdowns on just 40% of red zone possessions, a number that is due to regress to the mean from a number that is outside the top 100 this season.

Meanwhile, the UCLA defense has been on a tear this season. The team is second in PFF's pass rush grade and just overwhelmed the same Washington State that carved up Oregon State at home. The Bruins, as mentioned above, are allowing less than two yards per carry and are tops in yards per play allowed.

This will be a tricky environment for the Bruins to enter given its QB struggles, but I also have questions for the Beavers offense if the team isn't picking up north of five yards per carry or scoring touchdowns on 90% of red zone possessions like the team has done to date. If Uiagalelei is forced into obvious passing situations, I don't trust him as he is completing only 51% of his throws of 10 or more yards this season. It's evident that head coach Jonathan Smith doesn't trust him all that much, starting to ease in backup Aidan Chiles, giving him full drives at a time over the past few games.

I don't trust Oregon State to win with margin in this game with the state of UCLA's defense and the upside this offense possesses. I'll take the points on Saturday night.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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