UFC 275 Best Bets: How to Bet Glover Teixeira vs. Jiri Prochazka Light Heavyweight Title Match
By Reed Wallach
After a week off for the UFC best bets column, we are back and we are going international.
UFC 275 is live from Kallang, Singapore with a pair of title fights headlining the card. Glover Teixeira will make his first title defense as Light Heavyweight champion against Jiri Procházka, who has been dominant in his pair of knockout wins in the promotion.
Speaking of dominant, Valentina Shevchenko will look to make her seventh consecutive title defense at strawweight against 19-1 Taila Santos in the co-main event.
Here are my best bets for the 12 fight card with odds courtesy of consensus sportsbooks:
UFC RECORD: 25-34, -10.2U
Light Heavyweight Championship: Glover Teixeira (+165) vs. Jiri Procházka (-200)
Prochazka is massive and has wild knockout power, but we have seen him struggling with grappling in the past on the regional scene and even against a poor grappler in Dominick Reyes in his last fight.
While I think that the Czech Republic challenger can find a knockout finish early, I see this as a valuable spot to back Teixeira as an underdog for the fourth consecutive time. Even at the age of 42 he is as dangerous as anyone as a grappler and can put Prochazka against the cage and eventually on the mat.
I don't see this fight going very long (either a Procházka knockout or Teixeira finish on the ground), but I see the champion being composed enough to avoid that finishing strike and instead drag this to the mat. Once this hits the ground, it's a wrap. The challenger has very little ground game and it's lightyears behind Teixeira's.
Procházka will be a champion soon, but this is a steep price to pay for him against a fighter that is unique to him with a clear avenue to victory. I'll take the juicy price on Teixeira winning inside the distance and make it 7 consecutive victories.
PICK: Teixeira Inside the Distance (+240)
Weili Zhang (-175) vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk (+145)
The line is similar to the first matchup. Zhang closed as a -195 favorite according to Tapology, but the number has come down.
So, what's happened since their epic match that ended in a split decision? Zhang was KO'd by Rose Namajunas by a head kick and then lost a narrow decision. Meanwhile, the Polish born fighter has been inactive but is getting respect in the market.
I think that Zhang is likely being undervalued in this spot off of two losses in a row, both filled with variance. The former champion is the far superior striker, posting 10 knockouts in 21 victories, and in a 3-round fight should be able to push the pace and land the more damaging shots against Jedrzejczyk similar to their first fight.
While 5 rounds could favor Jedrzejcyk (average fight time of 19:24 per UFCStats.com and 11 of 16 wins by decision), this is a 3-round bout, and Zhang's gas tank will be less of a question.
Give me the better striker to win a brawl and reaffirm that she is a contender at strawweight.
PICK: Weili Zhang -175, Zhang/Steve Garcia Parlay (+140)
Ramazan Emeev (+145) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (-165)
This was my first pick in the Jab, Cross, Hook betting draft, as I see a clear grapple-heavy approach leading Emeev to victory.
While Della Maddalena brings a ton of upside, this is a big jump in class against the 35-year-old Russian. Emeev has been finished in one fight in his career and has fought the far better competition. He averages more than 2 takedowns per fight in the UFC and should challenge Della Maddalena's gas tank.
I see Emeev pushing this fight against the cage and to the mat while he avoids his opponent powerful striking. After closing as a -400 favorite in his first official UFC fight, he is being overvalued as a favorite.
PICK: Emeev +145
UFC 275 Best Bets
- Jake Matthews (+118) 1.5U
- Jacob Malkoun by Decision (+900) 0.5U