UFC 299: Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong Prediction, Pick and Odds

It has been a rough two-year stretch for Petr Yan since he last picked up a win but the former bantamweight champion will get a chance to bounce back into the title picture with a win over 26-year-old Song Yadong at UFC 299.

Yan (16-5) has not won since his interim title fight with Cory Sandhagen at UFC 267 in 2021. In the time since, Yan has gone 0-3 including back-to-back split decision losses to Aljamain Sterling and Sean O'Malley before suffering a thorough beatdown from Merab Dvalishvili in his last outing.

Yadong (21-7-1, 1 NC) has thrust himself firmly into the top 10 at bantamweight in the same period with dominant wins over Chris Gutierrez and Ricky Simón. Since 2020, Yadong has gone 5-2 with three wins over ranked opponents and his only loss since 2021 was due to a doctor stoppage.

Currently on opposite career paths with similar boxing-heavy styles, Yan and Yadong will open the UFC 299 main card with the odds near dead even.

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Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong odds and round total

Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong best bet

Yan has undeniably had a rough stretch with just a 1-4 record in his last five but there is no doubt in my mind that he is still a top-five bantamweight. Of the four losses, Yan has only lost to the current divisional champion and the fighters currently ranked no. 1 and no. 2, respectively.

This is not a tune-up for Yan by any means, as Yadong is arguably the most powerful and athletic bantamweight on the UFC roster. But Yan and Yadong match up very similarly with reliance on boxing and power, the main difference being Yan prioritizing defense as opposed to Yadong weaponizing his speed and power.

In his 30-fight career, Yadong is just 4-2-1 in fights when he does not record a knockdown. That record includes a highly controversial win over Marlon Vera. Yadong has lethal power but in fights when he cannot hurt his opponent, he tends to struggle. In 21 professional fights, Yan has only been knocked down once by John Dodson in 2019.

In Yan's five career losses, he has shown an ability to get overwhelmed by his opponent's volume due to his content with staying in a defensive shell. Yan opens up more in later rounds but only Merab Dvalishvili has been able to blitz him from start to finish with the majority of his other losses coming as a result of being out-grappled.

With the four fights in Yan's career, not including the disqualification loss, Yan ceded a total of 22 takedowns for an average of 5.5 per fight. Yadong only averages 0.63 takedowns per 15 minutes and just seven total in the UFC.

Prediction: Petr Yan by decision

Best bet: Petr Yan money line (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.