UFC 300: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill Prediction, Pick and Odds (Back the Champion)

After months of anticipation, UFC 300 is now just around the corner and will be headlined by UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira defending his crown against former titleholder Jamahal Hill.

Pereira (9-2, 6-1 in UFC) has already set numerous UFC records, including becoming the quickest fighter to achieve double champ status in the promotion. Despite losing the middleweight title in April 2023, Pereira ended the year as the UFC light heavyweight champion by finishing Jiri Prochazka with his signature left hook.

Hill (12-1, 6-1 in UFC) returns to the cage for the first time since winning the belt against Pereira's head coach, Glover Teixeira, at UFC 283. Before he had a chance to defend the title, Hill suffered an Achilles tendon injury while playing pickup basketball and vacated the championship.

With just 11 professional MMA fights on his record, Pereira notoriously spent the bulk of his athletic career as a kickboxer. As a former two-division kickboxing world champion, the Brazilian is one of just three fighters inducted into the GLORY Kickboxing Hall of Fame.

Now appearing in his fourth UFC title fight in just his 12th professional bout, Pereira has yet to make a successful title defense in the Octagon but is slightly favored to do so on Saturday.

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Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill odds and round total

Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill best bet

As unfortunate as it is, the chances of Hill entering this fight at 100 percent are very slim. The former champion ruptured his Achilles tendon — arguably the worst injury an athlete can suffer — and is getting back into the octagon just nine months later.

Both fighters involved and the UFC have openly admitted that this matchup was initially targeted for UFC 301 in May but moved up due to the lack of a UFC 300 main event, thus potentially rushing Hill's timeline. Hill mentioned on his podcast that he received a hefty payday to compensate for his troubles to incentivize his expedited return.

Not only does an impaired Achilles heel impair the movement of Hill but leaves him vulnerable to Pereira's best strike: leg kicks. The champion is notorious for his quick and powerful leg attacks that were prominent in nearly all of his UFC victories.

Against opponents who have primarily attempted to strike with Pereira, the former GLORY Kickboxing champion is 4-1 in the UFC with three knockout wins. Hill has never completed a takedown in the Octagon and has spoken on the record that he will only strike with the Brazilian and attempt to prove that he is the best boxer in MMA.

Hill, while having just one career loss due to a dislocated elbow, has shown defensive laziness in exchanges when he gets too keen on working in his offense. Few are better at finding holes in an opponent's guard than Pereira, who has elite accuracy and power.

Pereira's team, Teixeira MMA and Fitness, will also be preparing for Hill for a second time, as Glover Teixeira ended his career against the American at UFC 285. Against former opponents of Teixeira, Pereira is currently 2-0.

With two large power punchers looking to trade in the center of the Octagon, consider the fight to end by knockout (-300) as a strong addition to a parlay. One man will fall before the end of the fight and I will side with the champion as nine months is just much too soon to be returning to a fist fight off a ruptured Achilles tendon for an athlete who relies heavily on his explosion and power.

Prediction: Pereira by knockout in round four

Best bet: Alex Pereira by KO/TKO (+120)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.