UFC 300: Aljamain Sterling vs. Calvin Kattar Prediction, Pick and Odds

After losing his bantamweight title to Sean O'Malley at UFC 292, Aljamain Sterling will finally make his featherweight debut against Calvin Kattar on the UFC 300 prelims.

The loss in August 2023 ended a nine-fight win streak for Sterling (23-4, 15-4 in UFC), who held the 135-pound belt for over two years. Now 34 years old, Sterling will move up 10 pounds to the featherweight division after years of being one of the largest bantamweights on the UFC roster.

Like fellow UFC 300 fighter Aleksandar Rakic, Kattar (23-7, 7-5 in UFC) is attempting to return to the Octagon after tearing his ACL in his last loss to Arnold Allen. The loss was Kattar's second in a row and third in his last four fights, last picking up a win over Giga Chikadze in 2022.

The odds opened as a pick-'em bout but have since moved in favor of Sterling, who is closing as a near 2-1 favorite.

Aljamain Sterling vs. Calvin Kattar odds and round total

Aljamain Sterling vs. Calvin Kattar best bet

The money line price may appear a bit steep on Sterling for many bettors' liking, particularly given the style matchup on paper. But timing and intangibles are all in the former champion's favor, setting Sterling up to potentially shock the world once again.

The numbers alone do not favor Sterling as despite profiling as a grappler, the BJJ black belt has completed just 24 percent of takedown attempts in his UFC career and now faces the 91 percent takedown defense of Kattar. But looking further into the opponents of Kattar, none of the fighters he has faced were keen on implementing a wrestling game plan and largely shot takedowns to attempt to change the pace, thus slightly inflating his number.

Sterling is not a proficient takedown artist but upon completion is one of the best grapplers in MMA. Combined with his ground-and-pound attack, Sterling's control ability is amongst the best of all time and properly sets up his submission attacks. Against Petr Yan, Sterling completed just two of 22 attempted takedowns but racked over eight minutes of control time across the two and arguably scored two 10-8 rounds.

Many often underrate the striking ability of Sterling as well, who is not a traditional striker and embodies a "gritty not pretty" approach to his kickboxing. It never looks flashy or technical, but his awkwardness and flow-striking have given all of his opponents fits, including Sean O'Malley, whom Sterling won round one against on the feet.

The biggest benefit Sterling should show off is his improved cardio from the reduced weight cut, a factor that can significantly impact the fight against a 36-year-old Kattar. Again, he has never been the best takedown artist but before the weight cut slowed his performance at bantamweight, Sterling overwhelmed opponents with pace, cardio, and pressure.

Kattar is a notoriously slow starter and prefers to trade in boxing range, something Sterling will not give him. Look for Sterling to confuse and frustrate him with constant movement and unorthodox attacks and implement a similar gameplan he used against Pedro Munhoz.

The price on Sterling has climbed since opening but the decision prop can be found for +120 on DraftKings.

Prediction and best bet: Sterling by decision (+120)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.