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UFC 302: Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa Prediction, Pick and Odds

Back the underdog to cover the spread in the UFC 302 co-main event

By Jaren Kawada

Feb 17, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Paulo Costa gestures toward Robert Whittaker during UFC 298 at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 17, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Paulo Costa gestures toward Robert Whittaker during UFC 298 at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
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Making his quickest turnaround between fights in almost seven years, Paulo Costa will attempt to put himself back into the middleweight title picture against Sean Strickland at UFC 302.

Strickland (28-6, 15-6 in UFC) will be fighting for the first time since losing the UFC middleweight championship to Dricus du Plessis at UFC 297. Before the loss, Strickland capped off a three-fight win streak with a stunning upset win over Israel Adesanya at UFC 293 to claim the belt.

Costa (14-3, 6-3 in UFC) has gone just 1-3 in his last four fights since starting his career at 13-0, beginning with a championship loss to Adesanya. Before his recent loss to Robert Whittaker at UFC 298, Costa had last picked up a win over Luke Rockhold at UFC 278 in 2022.

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Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa odds and round total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Sean Strickland -225
  • Paulo Costa +185

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa best bet

On paper, it is easy to pull the trigger Strickland considering Costa lost to the no. 3 ranked middleweight in February and is now getting the former champion and no. 1 contender. But theoretically, this is a better matchup for the Brazilian.

This will almost certainly be a "volume vs. power" matchup, with Strickland bringing the cardio and volume and Costa owning the power advantage. That analysis suggests Strickland will have the edge if the fight does the distance with the finishing upside on the underdog.

While the fight is likely to see the latter rounds, Costa is very live to get a finish, despite not having one on his record since 2018. In his last three fights, Costa hurt all of his opponents with one big moment. If he lands the same type of power on Strickland, the 33-year-old has shown little ability to withstand such damage in his career.

Even in the two fights he has lost by decision, Costa has yet to be dominated, other than the lone knockout loss on his record. In the one five-round fight he lost, Costa won two rounds on all three judges' scorecards.

Strickland, conversely, has fought for five rounds seven times in the UFC, covering a -5.5 spread just three times (43 percent) with one being a second-round knockout. Barring an injury, Strickland won't finish Costa. His defensive style is always susceptible to miscalculation from the judges, leading to three split decisions in his last six main events (50 percent).

If you want to back Strickland, bet him to do so by decision. But with the openings he leaves defensively and Costa's knack of finding a way to hurt almost every opponent at least once, there are few ways I see Strickland winning four rounds.

Consider Costa by knockout (+300) as a half-unit sprinkle. Of the sportsbooks offering a point spread, DraftKings gives the best price of +105 as of Tuesday.

Prediction: Costa by knockout in round four

Best bet: Paulo Costa +5.5 (+105)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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